Abstract
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Choudhuri, Arnab Rai, Chatterjee, Piyali, Jiang, Jie 2007, Phys. Rev. Lett., 98,13, id. 131103.
Dabas, R. S., Sharma, Kavita, Das, Rupesh M., Pillai, K. G. M., Chopra, Parvati, Sethi, N. K. 2008, Solar Phys., 250(1), 171–181.
Dikpati, M., de Toma, G., Gilman, P. A. 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05102.
Echer, E., Rigozo, N. R., Nordemann, D. J. R., Vieira, L. E. A. 2004, Ann. Geophys., 22, 2239–2243.
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M. 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18101.
Hiramath, K. M. 2008, Astrophys. Space Sci., 314(1–3), 45–49.
Jain, R. 1997, Solar Phys., 176, 431–437.
Javaraiah, J. 2008, Solar Phys., 252, 419–439.
Kane, R. P. 1978, Nature, 274, 139.
Kane, R. P. 1997, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3121.
Kane, R. P. 2007, Solar Phys., 243, 205–217.
Ohl, A. I. 1966, Soln. Dann., 12, 84.
Thompson, R. J. 1993, Solar Phys., 148, 383.
Wang, J. L., Gong, J. C., Liu, S. Q., Le, G. M., Sun, J. L. 2002, Chinese J. Astron. Astrophys., 2(6), 557–562.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bhatt, N.J., Jain, R. & Aggarwal, M. Predicting maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24. J Astrophys Astron 30, 71–77 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12036-009-0004-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12036-009-0004-y