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Modeling of thermal discomfort based representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios in coming decades using temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET): a case study in a semi-arid climate of Iran

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to know the current state of thermal discomfort and its changes in the coming decades in one of the semi-arid climates of Iran. This study is very important considering the importance and direct impact of climate change and global warming on human health and can help adopt preventive policies to face them properly. Thermal discomfort changes were assessed by the temperature-humid index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) in Arak City as a representative of the semi-arid climate of Iran. The modeling was done using the CanESM2 general circulation model. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) software was used to downscale the model data in the period of 2011 to 2099 with three different scenarios of optimistic (RCP 2.6), intermediate (RCP 4.5), and pessimistic (RCP 8.5). The results showed that based on all three scenarios, the values of THI in January, February, and May in the coming decades will be higher than the base values (1976–2005), which will indicate an increase in thermal discomfort in these months. The pattern of changes based on the ET index was almost similar to the THI except in the optimistic scenario in all periods. In this scenario, there is a slight downward trend from 8.1% in the base period to 1.9%, 4.3%, and 3.7% in the decades 2011 to 2040, 2041 to 2070, and 2071 to 2099, respectively. In general, the increasing temperature in the study area based on all three scenarios will cause major changes in thermal comfort, so that thermal discomfort increases not only in hot seasons, but also in other seasons.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This research has been sponsored by the Arak University of Medical Sciences (grant no.3679). The authors would like to highly appreciate the university cooperation as well as Iran Meteorological Organization for the provision of required data.

Funding

This research has been sponsored by the Arak University of Medical Sciences (grant no.3679).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

    Mehdi Asghari, Reza Tajik & Sadegh Samadi

  2. Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Khorasan-Razavi, Iran

    Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari

  3. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

    Mohammadjavad Ghanadzadeh

  4. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran

    Rahmatollah Moradzadeh

  5. Occupational Health and Safety Engineering, Environmental Health Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

    Hamidreza Heidari

Authors
  1. Mehdi Asghari
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Mehdi Asghari, Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Reza Tajik, Sadegh Samadi, Mohammadjavad Ghanadzadeh, and Hamidreza Heidari. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Hamidreza Heidari, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hamidreza Heidari.

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Ethics approval

This study was performed in line with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. Approval was granted by the Ethics Committee of Arak University of Medical Sciences (IR.ARAKMU.REC.1399. 164).

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Asghari, M., Ghalhari, G.F., Ghanadzadeh, M. et al. Modeling of thermal discomfort based representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios in coming decades using temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET): a case study in a semi-arid climate of Iran. Air Qual Atmos Health 16, 1195–1205 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-023-01335-y

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