Abstract
We investigated recent ambient air quality and pollution in Zhangjiakou, China, from 2016 to 2020 by analyzing the interannual variability in the air quality index (AQI) variations, interannual and monthly tends of six conventional air quality indices, index-ratio characteristics, and correlations. We employed a Gray model for predicting air pollution control, providing insight into measures that may improve air quality during the coming 2022 Olympic Winter Games in Beijing and Zhangjiakou. The results showed that PM2.5 and PM10 (produced by industrial sources, coal consumption, vehicle emissions, and dust) increased in spring and decreased in summer; because the dust levels in Zhangjiakou are highest in spring, the PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were higher in spring than in winter. SO2, NO2, and CO increased in winter and decreased in summer, SO2 and CO are primarily affected by heat, and NO2 is mainly affected by vehicle emissions. Monthly O3 concentrations increased in summer and decreased in winter, owing to meteorological conditions, such as solar radiation and air temperature. Pearson’s correlation analysis suggested that PM10, PM2.5, NO2, CO, and SO2 are positively correlated and have similar emission patterns; while O3 is strongly negatively correlated with NO2, albeit less so in summer. According to backward trajectory and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) analysis, the February fine particulate pollution in Zhangjiakou was not only affected by local pollutants but also by pollutants from parts of Inner Mongolia, northern Shanxi, Mongolia, and other regions. We predict that the Zhangjiakou air quality during the 2022 Winter Olympics will be generally acceptable, but fine particulate matter concentrations may increase, presenting a human health risk.
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Data availability
This study included hourly Zhangjiakou AQI data and the concentrations of six air pollutants (i.e., PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO), from 2016 to 2020 (source: China National Environment Monitoring Center Data; http://106.37.208.233:20035/); and AQI data from February 4–20, 2021 was taken from the Zhangjiakou Ecological Environment Bureau (http://hb.zjk.gov.cn/).
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China and the National Natural Science Fundation of China.
Funding
National Key R&D Program of China (grants 2018YFC0706004, 2018YFC0706000 and 2018YFC1508902) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant 42071422).
Key Technology Research and Development Program of Shandong, 2018YFC0706004, Wenji Zhao, National Natural Science Foundation of China, 42071422, Wenji Zhao
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by MW, TL, NS, and LW. The first draft of the manuscript was written by MW, and all authors contributed to manuscript revision, read, and approved the submitted version.
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Wang, M., Zhao, W., Li, L. et al. Air quality assessment and Gray model prediction for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Zhangjiakou, China. Air Qual Atmos Health 15, 1303–1315 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-022-01152-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-022-01152-9