# Chance by design: devising an introductory probability module for implementation at scale in English early-secondary education

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## Abstract

This paper reports the design of an introductory probability module intended for implementation at scale within the English educational system. It forms part of the Effecting Principled Improvement in STEM Education (*epiSTEMe*) programme of redesign research aimed at improving the teaching and learning of mathematics and science at early-secondary level. The approach taken by the module is informed by the research literatures on effective teaching (with a particular emphasis on blending teaching components and exploiting dialogic discussion) and probabilistic thinking (with a particular emphasis on triangulating epistemic approaches and deconstructing fallacious reasoning). Recognising that scalable innovation must take account of the current state and established norms of the educational system, module development was informed by such considerations. Advice and feedback from classroom teachers, as well as observation and recording of their lesson implementations, provided a basis for assessing the viability of proposed features of the module, and the adaptation required of teachers, so that guidance materials and professional development could be framed appropriately.

### Keywords

Design research Dialogic teaching Early-secondary school England Improvement at scale Pedagogical design Teaching probability## Notes

### Acknowledgments

Thanks are due to the Economic and Social Research Council which provided funding for the *epiSTEMe* project (RES-179-25-0003), to our colleagues in the *epiSTEMe* research team—Christine Howe, Stefanie Luthman, Neil Mercer, Fran Riga and Keith Taber—and to the teachers who generously volunteered to review and trial versions of this module.

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