Abstract
Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon. Some of the consequences are ocean warming, melting glaciers, sea levels rising and coastal erosion. One of the means for a sustainable management of coastal areas is to have information on the trend of climatic parameters at the local scale as well as the spatial distribution and dynamics of coastal people. This study is a contribution to the assessment of the extent of climatic parameters and dynamics of coastal peoples in Togo. Climatic data like, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, sunshine, tidal gauge and satellite images (Landsat and Sentinel-2 images) for the period from 1988 to 2020 were used. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope test were used for climate trend analysis while settlement area mapping was done using Object-Based Image Analysis method. The results revealed a significant trend in temperature and sea level rise. The temperature analysis showed an increase of trend of 0. 038 °C/year while the tidal gauge data analysis showed an increase of trend of 13.75 mm/year. The annual trend of other climatic parameters was not significant but record monthly variability which were significant. The settlement areas has changed from 2. 06% to 11. 85% between 1988 and 2020. Near the sea, the settlement pattern is compacted with high density of people. In the inland this pattern is dispersed. In 1980, the population of the maritime region was estimated at 1,042,385 people while in 2022 it was 3,534,991 people. The study concludes that the coastal areas of Togo are hot spots of high population density and facing to the rise in temperature and sea level rise.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adjoussi P (2010) The vulnerability of coastal resources between the mouth of the volta (ghana) and the mono (benin) to sea level rise: a forecast study. Climat and Developpement, ISSN: 1840–5452
As-syakur A, Adnyana I, Arthana IW, Nuarsa IW (2012) Enhanced built-up and bareness index (EBBI) for mapping built-up and bare land in an urban area. Remote Sens 4(10):2957–2970. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs4102957
Blaschke T (2010) Object based image analysis for remote sensing. ISPRS J Photogrammetry Remote Sens 65(1):2–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2009.06.004
Blivi A, Adjoussi P (2004) Moving of the Togo shoreline detected by remote sensing. Geo-Eco -Trop 28:27–38. http://hdl.handle.net/1834/2903
Bruce AK, Sama S, Kokou K (2015) Identification of Environmental Changes and Land Use in the lagoon ecosystems of Togo Southeastern. Open Access Library Journal 2:e1895. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1101895
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M (2011) Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (Southern Italy). Int J Climatol 31(1):44–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2055
Congalton RG (1991) A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data. Remote Sens Environ 37(1):35–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(91)90048-B
Dedekorkut-Howes A, Torabi E, Howes M (2021) Planning for a different kind of sea change: lessons from Australia for sea level rise and coastal flooding. Clim Policy 21(2):152–170. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1819766
Demirović D (2019) An implementation of the mean shift algorithm. Image Process Line 9:251–268. https://doi.org/10.5201/ipol.2019.255
Enríquez-de-Salamanca Á (2020) Evolution of coastal erosion in Palmarin (Senegal). J Coastal Conserv 24(2):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-020-00742-y
Erhart S, Erhart K (2022) Application of north european characterisation factors, population density and distance-to-coast grid data for refreshing the swedish human toxicity and ecotoxicity footprint analysis. Environ Impact Assess Rev 92:106686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106686
Forget Y, Linard C, Gilbert M (2018) Supervised classification of built-up areas in sub-saharan african cities using landsat imagery and Open Street Map. Remote Sens 10(7):1145. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10071145
Fukunaga K, Hostetler L (1975) The estimation of the gradient of a density function, with applications in pattern recognition. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 21(1):32–40. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1975.1055330
Gallina J, Sidle R (2018) Cumulative climate change influences and hazards affecting the Sunshine Coast. Australian J Emerg Manage 33(3):30–37. https://search.informit.org/doi/epdf/https://doi.org/10.3316/agispt.20180827001082
Gallina V, Torresan S, Zabeo A, Rizzi J, Carniel S, Sclavo M, Pizzol L, Marcomini A, Critto A (2019) Assessment of climate change impacts in the North Adriatic coastal area. Part II: consequences for coastal erosion impacts at the regional scale. Water 11(6):1300. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061300
Gomez MLA, Adelegan OJ, Ntajal J, Trawally D (2020) Vulnerability to coastal erosion in the Gambia: empirical experience from Gunjur. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 45:101439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101439
Grinias I, Panagiotakis C, Tziritas G (2016) MRF-based segmentation and unsupervised classification for building and road detection in peri-urban areas of high-resolution satellite images. ISPRS J Photogrammetry Remote Sens 122:145–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.10.010
Güçlü YS (2020) Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. J Hydrol 584:124674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124674
Haan CT (1977) Statistical methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Iowa, p 378
Hay GJ, Castilla G (2006) Object-based image analysis: strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT). In: 1st International Conference on Object-Based Image Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77058-9_4
Hens L, Thinh NA, Hanh TH, Cuong NS, Lan TD, Van Thanh N, Le DT (2018) Sea level rise and resilience in Vietnam and the Asia Pacific: a synthesis. Vietnam J Earth Sci 40(2):126–152. https://doi.org/10.15625/0866-7187/40/2/11107
Hossain MD, Chen D (2019) Segmentation for object-based image analysis (OBIA): a review of algorithms and challenges from remote sensing perspective. ISPRS J Photogrammetry Remote Sens 150:115–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.02.009
INSEED (2010) Result of the Fourth General Census of Population and Habitat in Togo. https://inseed.tg/
INSEED (2022) Result of the fifth General Census of Population and Habitat in Togo. https://inseed.tg/
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 1132pp. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415379
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation method. Charless Griffin, London. https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19521603271
Koffi D, Komla G (2015) Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the context of climate change in Togo. J Water Clim Change 6(4):848–864. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.111
Konko Y, Bagaram B, Julien F, Akpamou K, Kokou K (2018) Multitemporal analysis of coastal erosion based on multisource satellite images in the south of the Mono Transboundary Biosphere Reserve in Togo (West Africa). OALib J 5:1–21. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1104526
Konko Y, Okhimambe A, Nimon P, Asaana J, Rudant JP, Kokou K (2020) Coastline Change Modelling Induced by Climate Change using geospatial techniques in Togo (West Africa). Adv Remote Sens 9(2):85–100. https://doi.org/10.4236/ars.2020.92005
Le TDN, Awal R (2021) Adaptation to climate extremes and sea level rise in coastal cities of developing countries. Clim Change Extreme Events 145–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822700-8.00003-2
Lu Y, Zhang B, Perrie W, Mouche AA, Li X, Wang H (2018) A C-band geophysical model function for determining coastal wind speed using synthetic aperture radar. IEEE J Sel Top Appl Earth Observations Remote Sens 11(7):2417–2428. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2018.2836661
Mackay A (2008) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. J Environ Qual 37(6):2407. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2008.0015br
Malik A, Kumar A (2020) Spatio-temporal trend analysis of rainfall using parametric and non-parametric tests: case study in Uttarakhand, India. Theoret Appl Climatol 140(1):183–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03080-8
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Mavromatis T, Stathis D (2011) Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends. Theoret Appl Climatol 104(1):13–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0320-9
Misra M, Kumar D, Shekhar S (2020) Assessing machine learning based supervised classifiers for built-up impervious surface area extraction from sentinel-2 images. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening 53:126714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2020.126714
Moriconi-Ebrard F, Harre D, Heinrigs P (2016) West African Studies this series of books examines economic and social issues being faced by West Africa. English Also available in: French. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264252233-en
Neumann B, Vafeidis AT, Zimmermann J, Nicholls RJ (2015) Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding-a global assessment. PLoS ONE 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0131375
Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Château J, Muir-Wood R (2008) Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: exposure estimates. OECD Environ Working Papers No 1:26. https://doi.org/10.1787/011766488208
Nicholls RJ, Lincke D, Hinkel J, Brown S, Vafeidis AT, Meyssignac B, Hanson SE, Merkens JL, Fang J (2021) A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nat Clim Change 11(4):338–342. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z
Nimon P, Issaou L, Konko Y, Kokou K (2020) Spatio-temporal patterns of Rainfall variability for wet season over Togo in West Africa. Open Access Library Journal 7:e6044. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1106044
Nyadzi E, Bessah E, Kranjac-Berisavljevic G (2020) Taking stock of Climate Change Induced Sea Level rise across the West African Coast. Environ Claims J 33(1):77–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/10406026.2020.1847873
Pacifici M, Visconti P, Rondinini C (2018) A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals. Glob Change Biol 24(4):1626–1636. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13942
Piyoosh AK, Ghosh SK (2018) Development of a modified bare soil and urban index for Landsat 8 satellite data. Geocarto Int 33(4):423–442. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2016.1273401
Rwanga SS, Ndambuki JM (2017) Accuracy assessment of land use/land cover classification using remote sensing and GIS. Int J Geosci 8(4):611–622. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2017.84033
Sagna P, Dipama JM, Vissin EW, Diomandé BI, Diop C, Chabi PA, Sambou PC, Sané T, Karambiri BL, Koudamiloro O, Diédhiou YM (2021) Climate Change and Water Resources in West Africa: a case study of Ivory Coast, Benin, Burkina Faso, and Senegal. InClimate Change and Water Resources in Africa 55–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61225-2_4
Sahin O, Stewart RA, Faivre G, Ware D, Tomlinson R, Mackey B (2019) Spatial bayesian network for predicting sea level rise induced coastal erosion in a small Pacific Island. J Environ Manage 238:341–351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.008
Samal DR, Gedam SS (2015) Monitoring land use changes associated with urbanization: an object based image analysis approach. Eur J Remote Sens 48(1):85–99. https://doi.org/10.5721/EuJRS20154806
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Stanley DJ, Warne AG (1993) Nile Delta: recent geological evolution and human impact. Science 260:628–634. https://www.science.org/doi/https://doi.org/10.1126/science.260.5108.628
Tabari H, Grismer ME, Trajkovic S (2013) Comparative analysis of 31 reference evapotranspiration methods under humid conditions. Irrig Sci 31(2):107–117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-011-0295-z
UN-HABITAT (2008) State of the world’s cities 2008/2009 harmonious cities. Nairobi. http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/getPage.asp?page=bookView&book=2562
UNEP (2021) Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On-A World of Climate Promises Not Yet Delivered, Executive Summary. Nairobi. https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2021
Weisse R, Dailidienė I, Hünicke B, Kahma K, Madsen K, Omstedt A, Parnell K, Schöne T, Soomere T, Zhang W, Zorita E (2021) Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. Earth Sys Dyn 12(3):871–898. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021
World Bank (2019) The cost of Coastal Zone Degradation in West Africa. Washington. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31428/135269-Cost-of-Coastal-Degradation-in-West-Africa-March-2019.pdf?sequence=1
Xiao W, Zaforemska A, Smigaj M, Wang Y, Gaulton R (2019) Mean shift segmentation assessment for individual forest tree delineation from airborne lidar data. Remote Sens 11(11):1263. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111263
Xu H (2008) A new index for delineating built-up land features in satellite imagery. Int J Remote Sens 29(14):4269–4276. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802039957
Youn YH, Oh IS, Kim KH, Park YH, Kim JW (2003) Validation of sea level data in the east asian marginal seas: comparison between TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter and in-situ tide gauges. Adv Atmos Sci 20(4):650–660. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915508
Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manage 18(3):201–218. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60
Zerbini S, Raicich F, Prati CM, Bruni S, Del Conte S, Errico M, Santi E Sea-level change in the Northern Mediterranean Sea from long-period tide gauge time series. Earth Sci Rev 167:72–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.02.009
Zha Y, Gao J, Ni S (2003) Use of normalized difference built-up index in automatically mapping urban areas from TM imagery. Int J Remote Sens 24(3):583–594. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160304987
Zhang K, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP (2004) Global warming and coastal erosion. Clim Change 64(1):41–58. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024690.32682.48
Acknowledge
This study research is supported by West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). Thanks to the team of management of WASCAL Centre and the Germany ministry for the scholarship. Many thanks also to anonymous reviewers for theirs contributions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Konko, Y., Umaru, E.T., Adjoussi, P. et al. Climate change and coastal population dynamics in Togo (West Africa). J Coast Conserv 27, 47 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-023-00977-5
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-023-00977-5