Skip to main content

Assessing storm surge risk under future sea-level rise scenarios: a case study in the North Adriatic coast

Journal of Coastal Conservation volume 21, pages 453–471 (2017)Cite this article

Abstract

Low-lying coastal areas are often prone to storm surge flooding that can render severe damages to properties, destruction of habitats, threat to human safety and the environment. The impacts of coastal flooding are also expected to increase in the future as a consequence of global climate change and sea-level rise. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the potential risks raised by storm surge and sea-level rise on multiple coastal targets (i.e., population, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural environments and cultural heritage) in the Northern Adriatic coast in Italy. Through the assessment of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology allowed identifying and prioritizing hot-spot risk areas and targets requiring particular attention for the definition of adaptation strategies. Hazard scenarios were based on the analysis of tide gauge data (elaborated with the Joint Probability Method) and of different sea-level rise projections for the year 2100. Geographical-information analysis was then used to characterize vulnerability patterns of exposed natural and human systems and to make a spatial ranking of risks. Maps produced for the worst scenario showed that beaches are the target at higher risk (with more than 90% of the surface in the higher relative risk class) due to the low elevation and high proximity to the coastline. Also cultural heritage (i.e., villas, historical buildings and roads) and wetlands are highly threatened by storm surge flooding. The relative risks will be lower (i.e., between 25% and 40% of their surface/length in the higher relative risk class) for most of the other receptors (i.e., local roads, railways, natural and semi-natural environments and agricultural areas), including population and buildings that are mostly classified in lower risk classes. The overall results of the assessment, including maps and risk metrics, can be useful to rise the attention of coastal managers about the need to adapt to climate change, developing climate-proof policies and programs for the sustainable management of coastal zones.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

References

  • Antonioli F, Silenzi S (2007) Variazioni relative del livello del mare e vulnerabilità delle pianure costiere italiane. Quaderni SGI 2

  • Balbi S, Giupponi C, Gain A, Mojtahed V, Gallina V, Torresan S, Marcomini A (2010) A conceptual framework for comprehensive assessment of risk prevention measures: the Kulturisk framework (KR-FWK). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2184193 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.2184193

  • Bondesan A, Castiglioni GB, Elmi C, Gabbianelli G, Marocco R, Pirazzoli PA, Tomasin A (1995) Coastal areas at risk from storm surges and sea-level rise in northeastern Italy. J Coast Res 11(4):1354–1379

    Google Scholar 

  • Carbognin L, Teatini P, Tomasin A, Tosi L (2009) Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0617-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Ciscar JC, Iglesias A, Feyen L, Szabó L, Van Regemorter D, Amelung B, Nicholls R, Watkiss P, Christensen OB, Dankers R, Garrote L, Goodess CM, Hunt A, Moreno A, Richards J, Soria A (2011) Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:2678–2683. doi:10.1073/pnas.1011612108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowell M (2010) An estimate of the U.S. population living in 100-year coastal flood hazard areas. J Coast Res 26(2):201–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crozier MJ, Glade T (2005) Landslide hazard and risk: issues, concepts and approach. In: Glade T, Anderson M, Crozier MJ (eds) Landslide hazard and risk. Wiley, Chichester, pp 1–40

  • de Moel H, van Alphen J, Aerts JCJH (2009) Flood maps in Europe – methods, availability and use. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9(2):289–301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Devoy RJN (2008) Coastal vulnerability and the implications of sea-level rise for Ireland. J Coast Res 24(2):325–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EC (2007) Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 “on the assessment and management of flood risks”

  • EEA (2011) Disasters in Europe: more frequent and causing more damage. https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/natural-hazards-and-technological-accidents

  • Ferla M, Cordella M, Michielli L, Rusconi A (2007) Long term variations on sea level and tidal regime in the lagoon of Venice. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 75(1–2):214–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fontolan G (2001) Risk of flooding: forecast and prevention plan. Province of Venice, Soil and Civil Defence Unit, Trieste, p 92

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford ES, Mokdad AH, Link MW, Garvin WS, McGuire LC, Jiles RB, Balluz LS (2006) Chronic diseases in health emergencies: in the eye of the hurricane. Prev Chronic Dis 3(2):1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • French PW (2001) Coastal defences: processes, problems & solutions, Florence, KY, USA, Routledge. Available at: http://site.ebrary.com

  • Gambolati G, Teatini P (2002) GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the northern Adriatic Sea. Math Comput Model 35:963–972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gommes R, du Guerny J, Nachtergaele F, Brinkman R (1997) Potential impacts of sea-level rise on populations and agriculture. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonella M, Teatini P, Tomasi L, Gambolati G (1998) Flood risk analysis in the upper Adriatic Sea due to storm surge, tide, waves, and natural and anthropic land subsidence. In: Gambolati G (ed) CENAS-coastline evolution of the upper Adriatic Sea due to sea level rise and natural and anthropogenic land subsidence. Kluver academic Publisher Dordrecht, pp 313–324

  • Granger K (2003) Quantifying storm tide risk in cairns. Nat Hazards 30:165–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grünthal G, Thieken AH, Schwarz J, Radtke KS, Smolka A, Merz B (2006) Comparative risk assessments for the city of cologne—storms, floods, earthquakes. Nat Hazards 38:21–44. doi:10.1007/s11069-005-8598-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall JW, Dawson RJ, Sayers PB, Rosu C, Chatterton JB, Deakin R (2003) A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Water Marit Eng 156:235–247. doi:10.1680/maen.156.3.235.37976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls RJ, Corfee-Morlot J (2013) Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinkel J, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis AT, Tol RSJ, Avagianou T (2010) Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 15(7):703–719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holman IP, Loveland PJ (2001) Regional climate change impact and response studies in east Anglia and north West England (RegIS). Final report of MAFF project no. CC0337

  • Hunsaker C, Graham R, Suter G, O’Neill R, Barnthouse L, Gardner R (1990) Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale. Environ Manag 14(3):325–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC-AR5 (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–32

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Climate Change 2013: The physical Science basis. Summary for Policymakers, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical Science basis. Summary for Policymakers Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

  • IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland

  • Jiménez JA, Ciavola P, Balouin Y, Armaroli C, Bosom E, Gervais M (2009) Geomorphic coastal vulnerability to storms in microtidal fetch-limited environments: application to NW Mediterranean & N Adriatic Seas. J Coastal Res SI 56:1641–1645

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalbfleisch JG (1985) Probability and statistical inference: volume 1: probability. Springer Texts in Statistics-Sep 9, 1985

  • Landis WG (2005) Regional scale ecological risk assessment. Using the relative risk model. In: Landis WG. CRC PRESS

  • Le Cozannet G, Rohmer J, Cazenave A, Idier D, Van De Wal R, De Winter R (2015) Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises. Environ Model Softw 73:44–56. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lionello P (2012) The climate of the venetian and north Adriatic region: variability, trends and future change. Phys Chem Earth 40-41:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lionello P, Galati MB, Elvini E (2012) Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the venetian littoral. Phys Chem Earth 40-41:86–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lionello P, Cogo S, Galati MB, Sanna A (2008) The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations. Glob Planet Chang 63:152–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCann DGC (2011) A review of hurricane disaster planning for the elderly. World Med Health Policy 3(1):2

    Google Scholar 

  • McLaughlin S, Cooper JAG (2010) A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: a tool for coastal managers? Environ Hazards 9:233–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Cazenave A (2010) Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328:1517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Klein RJT (2005) Climate change and coastal management of Europe's coast. In: Vermaat JE, Bouwer L, Turner K, Salomons W (eds) Managing European coasts, past, present and future. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Pirazzoli PA (2005) A review of possible eustatic, isostatic and tectonic contributions in eight late-Holocene relative sea-level histories from the Mediterranean area. Quat Sci Rev 24:1989–2001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Post JC, Lundin CG (1996) Guidelines for integrated coastal zone management. In: environmentally sustainable development studies and monographs series no. 9. World Bank, Washington, DC, p 16

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Preston BL, Smith TF, Brooke C, Gorddard R, Measham TG, Withycombe G, Mcinnes K, Abbs D, Beveridge B, Morrison C (2008) Mapping climate change vulnerability in the Sydney coastal councils group, prepared for the Sydney coastal councils group

  • Pugh DT, Vassie JM (1979) Extreme sea-levels from tide and surge probability. Proc. 16th Coastal Engineering Conference, 1978, Hamburg, 1. American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, pp 911–930

    Google Scholar 

  • Purvis MJ, Bates PD, Hayes CM (2008) A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise. Coast Eng 55:1062–1073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramieri E, Hartley A, Barbanti A, Duarte Santos F, Gomes A, Hilden M, Laihonen P, Marinova N, Santini M (2011) Methods for assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change, European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC CCA) Technical Paper, Bologna (IT), p 93

  • Ramsbottom D, Sayers P, Panzeri M (2012) Climate change risk assessment for the floods and erosion sector. Defra, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Rizzi J, Torresan S, Gallina V, Brigolin D, Lovato T, Carniel S, Benettazzo A, Critto A, Pastres R, Marcomini A (2015a) Analysis of water quality variations impacts in the north Adriatic Sea under changing climate scenarios using a regional risk assessment approach. Marine Pollution Bulletin (in press)

  • Rizzi J, Gallina V, Torresan S, Critto A, Marcomini A (2015b) Regional risk assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia). Sustain Sci (in press)

  • Ronco P, Bullo M, Torresan S, Critto A, Olschewski R, Zappa M, Marcomini A (2015) A.: KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards–Part 2: application to the Zurich case study. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:1561–1576. doi:10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ronco P, Gallina V, Torresan S, Zabeo A, Semenzin E, Critto A, Marcomini A (2014) The KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 1: physical–environmental assessment. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:5399–5414. doi:10.5194/hess-18-5399-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt-Thomé P, Greiving S, Kallio H, Fleischhauer H, Jarva J (2006) Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions. Quat Int 150:103–112. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2006.01.024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seminara G, Bolla Pittaluga M, Tambroni N, Garotta V (2005) Open problems in modelling the long-term morphodynamic evolution of the Venice lagoon. In: Fletcher CA, Spencer T (eds) Flooding and environmental challenges for Venice and its lagoon: state of knowledge. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 369–378

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharples C (2006) Indicative mapping of Tasmanian coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise: explanatory report, 2nd edn. Department of Primary Industries, Water & Environment, Tasmania, p 112

    Google Scholar 

  • Simeoni U, Fontolan G, Tessari U, Corbau C (2007) Domains of spit evolution in the Goro area, Po Delta, Italy. Geomorphology 86:332–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomasin A, Pirazzoli PA (2007) Extreme sea levels on the Adriatic coast: a comparison of estimation methods. Atti dell’Istituto Veneto di Scienze, Lettere ed Arti, Tomo CLXVII (2008-2009), Classe di scienze fisiche, matematiche e naturali, pp 53–82

  • Torresan S, Critto A, Tonino M, Alberighi E, Pizzol L, Santoro F and Marcomini A (2009) Climate change risk assessment for coastal management. In: Özhan E (ed) Proceedings of the ninth international conference on the Mediterranean coastal environment, 10–14 November 2009, Sochi, Russia, MEDCOAST, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, pp 91–102

  • Torresan S, Critto A, Dalla Valle M, Harvey N, Marcomini A (2008) Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change: comparing segmentation at global and regional scales. Sustain Sci 3:45–65. doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0045-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torresan S, Critto A, Rizzi J, Marcomini A (2012) Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12(7):2347–2368

  • Tsimplis MN, Spencer NE (1997) Collection and analysis of monthly mean sea level data in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. J Coast Res 13(2):534–544

    Google Scholar 

  • UNISDR (2009) Terminology: basic terms of disaster risk reduction. Geneva, Switzerland

  • Vousdoukas MI, Voukouvalas E, Annunziato A, Giardino A, Feyen L (2016) Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. In: PNAS proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, December 22, 2009, vol 106, no. 51, (ISSN-0027-8424)

  • Willows R, Reynard N, Meadowcroft I, Connell R (2003) Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. Part 2. UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, pp 41–87

  • Wolff C, Vafeidis AT, Lincke D, Marasmi C, Hinkel J (2016) Effects of scale and input data on assessing the future impacts of coastal flooding: an application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna coast. Front Mar Sci 3:41. doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00041

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This paper is a result of the CLIMDAT project, funded by the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) Venice. Additional funding came from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project. The authors would like to thank the ISPRA Venice, the CMCC and the University Ca′ Foscari Venice staff who offered their contribution, particularly Marco Cordella and Franco Crosato of ISPRA for the support in the preparation of the dataset of tide gauge stations and Elisa Furlan of University Ca′ Foscari Venice for the support in GIS implementation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, I-73100, Lecce, Italy

    J. Rizzi, S. Torresan, A. Zabeo, A. Critto & A. Marcomini

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, via Torino 155, I-30172, Venice, Italy

    J. Rizzi, A. Critto, A. Tomasin & A. Marcomini

  3. Istituzione Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, Palazzo Cavalli, S. Marco 4090, I-30124, Venice, Italy

    A. Tosoni

Authors
  1. J. Rizzi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S. Torresan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. Zabeo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. Critto
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. A. Tosoni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. A. Tomasin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. A. Marcomini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. Marcomini.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rizzi, J., Torresan, S., Zabeo, A. et al. Assessing storm surge risk under future sea-level rise scenarios: a case study in the North Adriatic coast. J Coast Conserv 21, 453–471 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0517-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0517-5

Keywords

  • Storm surge
  • Climate change
  • Sea-level rise
  • Regional risk assessment
  • Joint probability method