Abstract
This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.
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Acknowledgements
Aberystwyth University provided detailed flowrate data for Afon Dyfi. Bathymetric LIDAR data was supplied by the Environment Agency. J.M. Brown (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratories (POL), Liverpool) provided data collection and assistance with TELEMAC. S.P. Neill provided POLCOMS data in Cardigan Bay. The project was funded by the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) and by the Centre for Applied Marine Science (CAMS), School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University.
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Robins, P.E., Davies, A.G. & Jones, R. Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management. J Coast Conserv 15, 1–14 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-010-0113-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-010-0113-4