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Determinants of motion picture box office and profitability: an interrelationship approach

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Abstract

Introduction

Producing and marketing motion pictures is notoriously risky, with only three out of ten movies breaking even and one becoming profitable at the box office. Extending knowledge on the factors that influence a movie’s box-office and on the interrelations between these factors can be seen as major contribution to aid in lowering the number of failures in the motion picture industry. The major aim of this study is to distinguish direct and indirect effects between potential success drivers and motion picture success by understanding the interrelationships among different determinants of movie success.

Methods

Hypotheses are developed with regard to the relationships among a number of factors that have been shown to impact motion-picture box office as well as movie profitability. Applying path analysis, which allows a simultaneous testing of factor interrelations, the hypotheses are subsequently tested against a sample of 331 movies.

Results and conclusion

The factors considered in the analysis explain a remarkable amount of a movie’s success. The findings improve the movie industry’s understanding of motion picture success because for the first time interrelationships between the various factors are considered, which enables the separation of direct and indirect (i.e., mediated) effects. By understanding different kinds of effects on movie success, studios are enabled to allocate budgets more effectively. In addition, the findings offer explanations for previous contrary findings of several factors’ influences on success.

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Acknowledgment

The authors thanks Frank Datz and Nitish Singh for their support during the data collection phase of this project, the American Marketing Association’s Summer Educators’ Conference reviewers and participants, and an anonymous RMS reviewer for comments on earlier versions of this article.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bauhaus-University of Weimar, Bauhausstr. 11, 99423, Weimar, Germany

    Thorsten Hennig-Thurau

  2. Department of Marketing, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO, 65211, USA

    Mark B. Houston

  3. Institute for Management, University of Koblenz-Landau, Universitätsstrasse 1, 56070, Koblenz, Germany

    Gianfranco Walsh

Authors
  1. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau
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  2. Mark B. Houston
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  3. Gianfranco Walsh
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thorsten Hennig-Thurau.

Additional information

Communicated by Ralf Ewert.

Appendix: Listing of movies in the final sample

Appendix: Listing of movies in the final sample

102 Dalmatians

13th Warrior, The

200 Cigarettes

28 Days

3 Strikes

6th Day, The

Adventures of Elmo in Grouchland, The

Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle, The

Affair of Love, An

Almost Famous

American Beauty

American Pie

American Psycho

Among Giants

An Ideal Husband

Angela’s Ashes

Anna and the King

Any Given Sunday

Anywhere But here

Arlington Road

Art of War, The

Astronaut’s Wife, The

Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me

Autumn in New York

Bachelor, The

Backstage

Bait

Bamboozled

Bats

Battlefield Earth

Beach, The

Beautiful

Beautiful People

Bedazzled

Being John Malkovich

Besieged

Best Laid Plans

Best Man, The

Better Than Chocolate

Beyond the Mat

Bian Lian (The King of Masks)

Bicentennial Man

Big Daddy

Big Kahuna, The

Big Momma’s House

Billy Elliot

Black and White

Blair Witch Project, The

Bless the Child

Blue Streak

Body Shots

Boiler Room

Bone Collector, The

Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2

Bossa Nova

Bounce

Bowfinger

Boys and Girls

Boys Don’t Cry

Breakfast of Champions

Bring it On

Bringing out the dead

Brokedown Palace

Broken Hearts Club: A Romantic Comedy, The

Cecil B. DeMented

Cell, The

Center Stage

Charlie’s Angels

Chicken Run

Chill Factor

Chuck and Buck

Cider House Rules, The

Committed

Contender, The

Cookie’s Fortune

Corruptor, The

Coyote Ugly

Cradle will rock

Crazy in Alabama

Crime and Punishment in Suburbia

Dancer in the Dark

Deep Blue Sea

Deterrence

Detroit Rock City

Deuce Bigalo: Male Gigolo

Dick

Dinosaur

Dog Park

Dogma

Double Jeopardy

Doug’s 1st Movie

Down to You

Dr. T and the Women

Drive Me Crazy

Drop Dead Gorgeous

Drowning Mona

Dudley Do-Right

East is East

El Abuelo (The Grandfather)

Election

End of Days

End of the Affair, The

Entrapment

Erin Brockovitch

Est-ouest (East/West)

Existenz

Exorcist (New Version), The

Eye of the Beholder

Eyes Wide Shut

Fantasia/2000

Fight Club

Final Destination

Finding Forrester

Five Senses, The

Flawless

Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas, The

Foolish

For Love of the Game

Forces of Nature

Frequency

Galaxy Quest

General’s Daughter, The

Get Carter

Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samourai

Girl, Interrupted

Girlfight

Gladiator

Go

God said, “Ha!”

Gojira ni-sen mireniamu (Godzilla 2000)

Gone in Sixty Seconds

Goodbye Lover

Gossip

Green Mile, The

Groove

Guinevere

Gun Shy

Hak Hap (Black Mask)

Hamlet (2000)

hanging up

Happy, Texas

Haunting, The

Held Up

Here on Earth

Hideous Kinky

High Fidelity

Highlander: Endgame

Hollow Man

Holy Smoke

House on Haunted Hill, The

Hurricane, The

I Dreamed of Africa

Idle Hands

I’ll be home for Christmas

In Crowd, The

In Too Deep

Insider, The

Inspector Gadget

Instinct

Iron Giant, The

Isn’t she great?

Jack Frost

Jakob the Liar

Jing ke ci qin wang (The Emporer and the Assassin)

Joe Gould’s Secret

Joe the King

Keeping the Faith

Kid, The

La Vita e Bella (Life is Beautiful)

Ladies Man, The

Lake Placid

Le Violon Rouge (The Red Violin)

Legend of Bagger Vance, The

Legend of Drunken Master, The (Jui kuen II)

Liberty Heights

Life

Light it up

Limey, The

Little Nicky

Little Vampire, The

Lola rennt (Run. Lola. run)

Loser

Lost and Found

Lost Souls

Love and Basketball

Love Letter, The

Love Stinks

Lucky Numbers

Magnolia

Man on the Moon

Mansfield Park

Map of the World, A

Matrix, The

Me, Myself and Irene

Meet the Parents

Men of Honor

Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc, The

Mickey Blue Eyes

Midsummer Night’s Dream, A

Million Dollar Hotel, The

Miss Julie

Mission to Mars

Mission: Impossible II

Mod Squad, The

Mumford

Mummy, The

Muppets from Space

Muse, The

Music of the Heart

My Dog Skip

My Favorite Martian

Mystery Men

Mystery, Alaska

Never Been Kissed

Next Best Thing, The

Next Friday

Ninth Gate, The

Notting Hill

Nurse Betty

Nutty Professor II: The Klumps

Office Space

Omega Code, The

Original Kings of Comedy, The

Other Sister, The

Out-of-Towners, The

Outside Providence

Passion of Mind

Patriot, The

Perfect Storm, The

Pitch Black

Play it to the Bone

Plunkett and McLeane

Pokemon the first movie

Pokemon: the movie 2000

Price of Glory

Prince of Egypt, The

Pushing Tin

Rage: Carrie 2, The

Random Hearts

Ready to Rumble

Red Planet

Reindeer Games

Remember the Titans

Replacements, The

Return to me

Ride with the Devil

Road to El Dorado, The

Road Trip

Romance

Romeo Must Die

Rugrats in Paris: The Movie

Rules of Engagement

Runaway Bride

S.L.C. Punk!

Saving Grace

Scary Movie

Scream 3

Shaft

Shanghai Noon

Simon Sez

Simpatico

Sixth Sense, The

Skulls, The

Sleepy Hollow

Small Time Crooks

Snow Day

Snow Falling on Cedars

South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut

Space Cowboys

Star Wars I: The Phantom Menace

Steal this Movie

Stigmata

Stir of Echoes

Story of Us, The

Straight Story, The

Strike!

Stuart Little

Summer of Sam

Supernova

Superstar

Sweet and Lowdown

Talented Mr. Ripley, The

Tao of Steve, The

Tarzan

Tea With Mussolini

Teaching Mrs. Tingle

Ten Things I Hate About You

Thirteenth Floor, The

This is my Father

Thomas and the Magic Railroad

Thomas Crown Affair, The

Three Kings

Three to Tango

Tigger Movie, The

Titan A.E.

Titus

Todo Sobre Mi Madre (All About my Mother)

Topsy-Turvy

Toy Story 2

Trick

Trippin’

Trixie

Tumbleweeds

Turn it Up

Twin Dragons (Shuang long hui)

Twin Falls Idaho

U-571

Under Suspicion

Universal Soldier: The Return

Up at the Villa

Urban Legends: Final Cut

Virgin Suicides, The

Walk on the Moon, A

Watcher, The

Way of the Gun

What Lies Beneath

What Planet are you from?

Whatever it Takes

What’s Cooking?

Where the Heart is

Where the Money is

Whipped

Whole Nine Yards, The

Wild Wild West

Winslow Boy, The

Woman on Top

Wonder Boys

Wood, The

World is not enough, The

X-Men

Yards

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Hennig-Thurau, T., Houston, M.B. & Walsh, G. Determinants of motion picture box office and profitability: an interrelationship approach. RMS 1, 65–92 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-007-0003-9

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