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The Prediction of Remaining Useful Life of Aluminum Reduction Cells Based on Improved Hidden Semi-Markov Model

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Abstract

An improved prediction algorithm of the hidden semi-markov model (HSMM) is proposed to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of aluminum reduction cells (ARC). First, the degradation process of the ARC is analyzed, and the parameters that could characterize its degradation process are determined. Second, to facilitate the prediction of HSMM, exponential distribution, in which form the dwell time in the traditional HSMM is distributed, is replaced with the Erlang distribution based on the queuing theory. Third, an improved forward recursion algorithm that introduced dwell time has not only simplified the calculation of useful life predictions but also further facilitated HSMM in the prediction of the RUL. Finally, verification is carried out using the actual data of an aluminum electrolytic industry, and the results showed that the improved HSMM performed better in the prediction and is more accurate than the existing prediction method.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledgement the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, Grant Number 2021M690798; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Plan Project, Grant Number [2021] General 085; Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant Number 62273033.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China

    Jiarui Cui, Chengguo Su, Qun Yan & Qing Li

  2. School of Information Engineering, Jingdezhen University, Jingdezhen, 333000, China

    Xiangquan Li

  3. Guiyang Aluminum Magnesium Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., Guiyang, 550081, China

    Jiarui Cui, Ruoyu Huang & Bin Cao

  4. Chinalco Intelligent Technology Development Co., Ltd, Hangzhou, 311199, China

    Bin Cao

  5. School of Aerospace Science and Technology, Xidian University, Xi’an, 710126, China

    Jiashan Cui

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  1. Jiarui Cui
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  7. Qing Li
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Correspondence to Qing Li.

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Cui, J., Su, C., Li, X. et al. The Prediction of Remaining Useful Life of Aluminum Reduction Cells Based on Improved Hidden Semi-Markov Model. JOM 75, 2054–2063 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11837-023-05703-y

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