Influence of ENSO Events on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Abstract

Based on an analysis of 51-year (1965–2015) data, the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined over the western North Pacific (WNP). The total number of TCs formed in the entire WNP reduces by about 3.4 TCs per year in La Niña years, whereas TCs have an equivalent genesis number between El Niño years and climatology. During El Niño years, the frequency of TC formation increases remarkably in the southeast quadrant (140°E–180°, 0°–17°N) and decreases in the northwest quadrant (120°–140°E, 17°–30°N). During La Niña years, TCs tend to form in the northwest and southwest quadrants (120°-140°E, 0°–17°N) quadrants. TCs tend to become long-lived in the peak season (from July to September) of El Niño years and during strong El Niño events. TC genesis shows a southeastward positive shift in terms of lifetime and intensity during El Niño years, thus more super TCs (winds ≥ 58.64ms−1) are formed in the southeast quadrant. Further analysis using the genesis potential index (GPI) indicates that the interannual variations in the TC genesis and track are significantly influenced by a combination of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41621064 and 41606003). The best track data are downloaded from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/), the reanalysis data set are taken from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Predication/National Center for Atmospheric Research (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). We thank Dr. Kerry Emanuel for providing the code of calculating TC maximum potential intensity.

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Correspondence to Zenghong Liu.

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Liu, Z., Chen, X., Sun, C. et al. Influence of ENSO Events on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific. J. Ocean Univ. China 18, 784–794 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-019-3923-5

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Key words

  • ENSO
  • tropical cyclone
  • western North Pacific