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Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

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Abstract

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate’s impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model’s robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory for providing GFDL CM2.1 data and National Ocean Service for providing in-situ sea level observations. Research support provided by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (3101000-841413030), NOAA (Grant No. NA11NOS0120033), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant Nos. 41506012, 9115 21884 and 41506027), the Fund of Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant No. GAST-GEOGE-03). The author also acknowledges support by NASA through grant NNX13AD80G.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, P. R. China

    Zhigang Yao & Xianwen Bao

  2. Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA

    Zhigang Yao & Ruoying He

  3. Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, 70803, USA

    Zuo Xue

  4. Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, 70803, USA

    Zuo Xue

  5. Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, 70803, USA

    Zuo Xue

  6. College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, P. R. China

    Jun Xie

  7. Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, 310012, P. R. China

    Qian Ge

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  1. Zhigang Yao
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Correspondence to Zhigang Yao.

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Yao, Z., Xue, Z., He, R. et al. Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. J. Ocean Univ. China 16, 1–7 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-017-3012-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-017-3012-6

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