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The impacts of economic restructuring and technology upgrade on air quality and human health in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

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Abstract

In this study, we have analyzed possible policy options to improve the air quality in an industrialized region—Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH) in China. A comprehensive model framework integrating GAINS-China, GEOS-Chem, and IMED/HEL is established to investigate the impacts of various policies on air pollution and health effects. The model establishes a data interface between economic input/output data and the emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants in the BTH region. Based on in-depth analyses of pollutant emission standards, industrial structure, pollution-intensive industries, and emission intensities in BTH and Pearl River Delta, several scenarios are constructed to explore the effectiveness of policy pathways in improving air quality in the BTH region. These scenarios include two categories: the category of “Industrial Technology Upgrade Policy” scenarios that focuses on reducing the emission intensity of industries vs. that of “Industrial Structure Adjustment Policy” scenarios that focuses on adjusting the proportion of industrial value-added. Our results show that the policy path of industrial technology upgrading can be effective and feasible, while economic structure adjustment shows complex and mixed effectiveness. We also find that the proposed policies and measures will be efficient to reduce pollution of primary pollutants and fine particles, but may not effectively mitigate ambient ozone pollution. Ozone pollution is projected to become increasingly severe in BTH, placing a challenge to pollution mitigation strategies that requires further adjustments to address it.

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Acknowledgements

This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71704005, 51861135102 and 71810107001) and the Key Projects of National Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 2017YFC0213000).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Chao Liu & Changchun Feng

  2. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Hancheng Dai

  3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China

    Lin Zhang

Authors
  1. Chao Liu
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  2. Hancheng Dai
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  3. Lin Zhang
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  4. Changchun Feng
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Hancheng Dai or Changchun Feng.

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Highlights

• Impacts of industrial restructuring and upgrade on air quality & health are assessed.

• An integrated approach combining different models is used for the assessment.

• Industrial technology upgrading is more effective than economic restructuring.

• Ozone is much more difficult to mitigate than PM2.5.

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Liu, C., Dai, H., Zhang, L. et al. The impacts of economic restructuring and technology upgrade on air quality and human health in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China. Front. Environ. Sci. Eng. 13, 70 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-019-1155-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-019-1155-y

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