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Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

  • Jiarui Han
  • Qian YeEmail author
  • Zhongwei Yan
  • Meiyan Jiao
  • Jiangjiang Xia
Research Article

Abstract

The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.

Keywords

user-end information user-oriented interactive forecasting system TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) 

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Copyright information

© Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jiarui Han
    • 1
    • 2
  • Qian Ye
    • 3
    Email author
  • Zhongwei Yan
    • 1
  • Meiyan Jiao
    • 4
  • Jiangjiang Xia
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Graduate SchoolChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Consortium for Capacity BuildingUniversity of ColoradoColoradoUSA
  4. 4.China Meteorology AdministrationBeijingChina

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