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Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system’s failure for concrete gravity dam

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Abstract

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction. Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases: failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability. Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters (earthquake variability and material randomness). Firstly, failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly, for the calculation of the failure probability, mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam, which include three levels, that is element failure, path failure and system failure. A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety (Tianjin University), Tianjin, 300072, China

    Chao Wang  (王超), She-rong Zhang  (张社荣), Bo Sun  (孙博) & Gao-hui Wang  (王高辉)

Authors
  1. Chao Wang  (王超)
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  2. She-rong Zhang  (张社荣)
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  3. Bo Sun  (孙博)
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  4. Gao-hui Wang  (王高辉)
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chao Wang  (王超).

Additional information

Foundation item: Projects(51021004, 51379141) supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China

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Wang, C., Zhang, Sr., Sun, B. et al. Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system’s failure for concrete gravity dam. J. Cent. South Univ. 21, 775–789 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-014-2001-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-014-2001-9

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