Abstract
Risk quantification in grade is critical for mine design and planning. Grade uncertainty is assessed using multiple grade realizations, from geostatistical conditional simulations, which are effective to evaluate local or global uncertainty by honouring spatial correlation structures. The sequential Gaussian conditional simulation was used to assess uncertainty of grade estimates and illustrate simulated models in Sivas gold deposit, Turkey. In situ variability and risk quantification of the gold grade were assessed by probabilistic approach based on the sequential Gaussian simulations to yield a series of conditional maps characterized by equally probable spatial distribution of the gold grade for the study area. The simulation results were validated by a number of tests such as descriptive statistics, histogram, variogram and contour map reproductions. The case study demonstrates the efficiency of the method in assessing risk associated with geological and engineering variable such as the gold grade variability and distribution. The simulated models can be incorporated into exploration, exploitation and scheduling of the gold deposit.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
LUO Zhou-quan, LIU Xiao-ming, SU Jia-hong, WU Ya-bin, LIU Wang-ping. Deposit 3D modeling and application [J]. Journal of Central South University of Technology, 2007, 14(2): 225–229.
JOURNEL A G. Modeling uncertainty: Some conceptual thoughts [M]// DIMITRAKOPOULOS R, Ed. Geostatistics for the Next Century. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994: 30–43.
GUBIAL D, HUMPHREYS M, SANGUINETTI H, SHRIVASTAVA P. Geostatistical conditional simulation of a large iron orebody of the pilbara region in western australia [C]// BAAFI E Y, SCHOFIELD N A, Eds, Geostatistics Wollongong’ 96. Melbourne, Australia, 1996: 695–706.
LIPTON I, GAZE R, HORTON J, KHOSROWSHAHI S. Practical application of multiple indicator kriging and conditional simulation to recoverable resource estimation for the Halley’s lateritic nickel deposit [C]// Beyond Ordinary Kriging: Non-Linear Geostatistical Methods in Practice, Proceedings of a 1 Day Symposium. Perth, 1998: 88–105.
GODOY M C, DIMITRAKOPOULAS R, COSTA J F. Economic functions and geostatistical simulation applied to grade control. In mineral resource and ore reserve estimation [C]// EDWARDS A C, Ed. The AUSIMM Guide to Good Practise. Melbourne, Australia, 2001: 591–600.
DIMITRAKOPOULAS R, FONSECA M B. Assessing risk in grade-tonnage curves in a complex copper deposit, northern Brazil, based on simulation of multiple correlated variables. Application of computers and operations research in the minerals industries [D]. South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 2003: 373–382.
JACKSON S, FREDERICKSEN D, STEWART M, VANN J, BURKE A, DUGDALE J, BERTOLI O. Geological and grade risk at the golden gift and magdala gold deposits stawell, victoria, australia [C]// 5th International Mining Geology Conference. Bendigo, 2003: 1–8.
GAMBIN F, COSTA J F C L, KOPPE J C. Forecasting fluctuations in a coal quality delivered to a powerplant via stochastic simulation [J]. Mining Technology: Trans Inst Min Metall A, 2005, 114: 167–175.
ERSOY A, YÜNSEL T Y. Geostatistical conditional simulation for the assessment of the quality characteristics of Çayırhan lignite deposits [J]. Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 2006, 24(6): 391–416.
ERSOY A, YÜNSEL T Y. Assessment of lignite quality variables: A practical approach with sequential gaussian simulation [J]. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization and Environmental Effects, 2009, 31(2): 175–190.
HERIAWAN M N, KOIKE K. Uncertainty assessment of coal tonnage by spatial modelling of seam distribution and coal quality [J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2008, 76: 217–226.
BERETTA F S, COSTA J F C L, KOPPE J C. Reducing coal quality attributes variability using properly designed blending piles helped by geostatistical simulation [J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2010, 84: 83–93.
OLEA R A, LUPPENS J A, TEWALT S J. Methodology for quantifying uncertainty in coal assessments with an applications to a texas lignite deposit [J]. International Journal of Coal Geology, 2011, 85: 78–90.
GOOVAERTS P. Kriging versus stochastic simulation for risk analysis in soil contamination [M]// SOARES A, et al. Eds, Geo-ENV I-Geostatistics for Environmental Applications. Lisbon, Portugal: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997: 247–258.
GEOVARIANCES. Isatis software [M]. France: Avon, Cedex, 2012: 594.
SOARES A. Direct sequential simulation and cosimulation [J]. Mathematical Geology, 2001, 33(8): 911–926.
LANTUÉJOUL C. Geostatistical simulation: Models and algorithms [M]. Berlin, Springer, 2002: 256.
ERSOY A, YÜNSEL T Y. Geostatistical conditional simulation for the assessment of contaminated land by abandoned heavy metal mining [J]. Environmental Toxicology, 2008, 23(1): 96–109.
HEDENQUIST J, WHITE. Epithermal gold deposits [M]. Ontario: PDAC Short Course, 2005: 98.
MUSTAFA C, KESKIN O. Mining geology report of Evliya Tepe (Ortakent-Koyulhisar-Sivas) [R]. Mineral Research & Exploration General Directorate (MRE) Report No. 10217, Ankara, 1999. (in Turkish).
NEWTON A, ABX, Sisorta PIMA Alteration Study, ABX Memorandum with 4 maps [R]. EMX Files, 2005.
VIGAR A J, MELDRUM S, GIROUX G, SOYLU M. Technical report on exploration results and resource estimates for the sisorta property sivas province, turkey [R]. Mining Associates Pty. Limited for Chesser Resources Limited and Eurasian Minerals Inc, 2009.
FOUGUET C. Reminders on the kriging, geostatistical simulations [M]. Amstrong M, Dowd P A, Eds. Kluver Academic Publishers, 1994: 131–145.
COOMBES J. The art and science of resource estimation: A practical guide for geologists and engineers [M]. Australia Coombes Capability, 2008: 231.
SINCLAIR A J, BLACKWELL G H. Applied mineral inventory estimation [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004: 400.
MEIRVENNE M V, GOOVAERTS P. Evaluating the probability of exceeding a site-specific soil cadmium contamination threshold [J]. Geoderma, 2001, 102: 75–100.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yunsel, T.Y. Risk quantification in grade variability of gold deposits using sequential Gaussian simulation. J. Cent. South Univ. 19, 3244–3255 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-012-1401-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-012-1401-y