Abstract
Using data from the Economic Advisory Center of the State Information Center (SIC), we examined the spatial patterns of car sales in China at the prefectural level in 2012. We first analyzed the spatial distributions of car sales of different kinds of automakers (foreign automakers, Sino-foreign joint automakers, and Chinese automakers), and then identified spatial clusters using the local Moran’s indexes. Location quotient analysis was applied to examine the relative advantage of each type of automaker in the local markets. To explain the variations of car sales across cities, we collected several socioeconomic variables and conducted regression analyses. Further, factor analysis was used to extract independent variables to avoid the problem of multicollinearity. By incorporating a spatial lag or spatial error in the models, we calibrated our spatial regression models to address the spatial dependence problem. The analytical results show that car sales varied significantly across cities in China, and most of the cities with higher car sales were the developed cities. Different automakers exhibit diverse spatial patterns in terms of car sales volume, spatial clusters, and location quotients. The scale and incomes factor were extracted and verified as the two most significant and positive factors that shape the spatial distributions of car sales, and together with the spatial effect, explained most of the variations of car sales across cities.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anselin L, 1995. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2): 93–115. doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
Anselin L, 2005. Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDaTM: A Workbook. Urbana, IL. USA: Spatial Analysis Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Illinois.
Bandeen R A, 1957. Automobile consumption, 1940–1950. Econometrica, 25(2): 239–248. doi: 10.2307/1910252
Cao X S, Huang X Y, 2013. City-level determinants of private car ownership in China. Asian Geographer, 30(1): 37–53. doi: 10.1080/10225706.2013.799507
Clark B, Chatterjee K, Melia S, 2016. Changes in level of household car ownership: the role of life events and spatial context. Transportation, 43(4): 565–599. doi: 10.1007/s11116-015-9589-y
Clark S, Finley A O, 2010. Spatial modelling of car ownership data: a case study from the United Kingdom. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 3(1): 45–65. doi: 10.1007/s12061-009-9030-z
Cullinane S, 2002. The relationship between car ownership and public transport provision: a case study of Hong Kong. Transport Policy, 9(1): 29–39. doi: 10.1016/S0967-070X(01)00028-2
Dargay J, Gately D, 1999. Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 33(2): 101–138. doi: 10.1016/S 0965-8564(98)00026-3
Giuliano G, Dargay J, 2006. Car ownership, travel and land use: a comparison of the US and Great Britain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 40(2): 106–124. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2005.03.002
Guo Z, 2013. Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City. Journal of Transport Geography, 26: 18–28. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012. 08.006
Huang Pingting, Zhang Xiaoping, 2014. Spatial evolution of automobile industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. Geographical Research, 33(1): 83–95. (in Chinese)
Huo H, Wang M, 2012. Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China. Energy Policy, 43: 17–29. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.063
Lee S M, 2011. A comparative study of the automobile industry in Japan and Korea: from visible to invisible barriers. Asian Survey, 51(5): 876–898. doi: 10.1525/as.2011.51.5.876
Li Shaoxing, Gu Chaolin, 2010. Empirical study on the intra-product specialization of Yangtze River Delta: a case study of auto manufacturing industry. Geographical Research, 29(12): 2132–2142. (in Chinese)
Ling Z W, Cherry C R, Yang H T et al., 2015. From e-bike to car: a study on factors influencing motorization of e-bike users across China. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 41: 50–63. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2015.09.012
Liu W D, Yeung H W C, 2008. China’s dynamic industrial sector: the automobile industry. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 49(5): 523–548. doi: 10.2747/1539-7216.49.5.523
Liu Zuoli, He Canfei, 2011. Agglomeration, institutions and the functional location of auto TNCs in China. Geographical Research, 30(9): 1606–1620. (in Chinese)
Lo K, 2014. A critical review of China’s rapidly developing renewable energy and energy efficiency policies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29: 508–516. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.09.006
Oakil A T M, Ettema D, Arentze T et al., 2014. Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence. Transportation, 41(4): 889–904. doi: 10.1007/s11116-013-9507-0
Oakil A T M, Manting D, Nijland H, 2016. Determinants of car ownership among young households in the Netherlands: The role of urbanisation and demographic and economic characteristics. Journal of Transport Geography, 51: 229–235. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.01.010
Pallares-Barbera M, 1998. Changing production systems: the automobile industry in Spain. Economic Geography, 74(4): 344–359. doi: 10.2307/144329
Qian L X, Soopramanien D, 2014. Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market. Journal of Business Research, 67(6): 1226–1232. doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2013.04.008
Qian L X, Soopramanien D, 2015. Incorporating heterogeneity to forecast the demand of new products in emerging markets: green cars in China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91: 33–46. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.008
Rits V, Kypreos S, Wokaun A, 2004. Evaluating the diffusion of fuel-cell cars in the China markets. IATSS Research, 28(1): 34–46. doi: 10.1016/S0386-1112(14)60090-X
Ritter N, Vance C, 2013. Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 50: 74–85. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.035
Rubenstein J M, 1986. Changing distribution of the American automobile industry. Geographical Review, 76(3): 288–300. doi: 10.2307/214147
Seya H, Nakamichi K, Yamagata Y, 2016. The residential parking rent price elasticity of car ownership in Japan. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 85: 123–134. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.01.005
Wan Z, Sperling D, Wang Y S, 2015. China’s electric car frustrations. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 34: 116–121. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2014.10.014
Wang F H, 2006. Quantitative Methods and Applications in GIS. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Wang Junsong, He Canfei, 2009. Agglomeration economies, FDI spillovers and Chinese automobile enterprises efficiency. Progress in Geography, 28(3): 337–344. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz. 2009.03.003(in Chinese)
Wang Y F, Li K P, Xu X M et al., 2014. Transport energy consumption and saving in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29: 641–655. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2013.08.104
Wu N, Zhao S C, Zhang Q, 2016. A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China: findings from the panel data. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 85: 186–195. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.01.012
Xiao Yuanfei, 2010. The competitive pattern features of China’s auto industry and its strategy decision in post-crisis era. Future and Development, 33(11): 25–30. (in Chinese)
Xie Chunyan, Liu Daqian, 2014. Spatial pattern of passenger-car consumption market in China. Economic Geography, 34(3): 85–90. (in Chinese)
Yagi M, Managi S, 2016. Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan. Transport Policy, 50: 37–53. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.05.011
Zhao Junzhu, Sun Tieshan, Li Guoping, 2014. Agglomeration and firm location choice of China’s automobile manufacturing industry. Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(6): 850–862. (in Chinese)
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to express their thanks to Economic Advisory Center in the State Information Center (SIC) for providing data used in our research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41301143)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, D., Lo, K., Song, W. et al. Spatial patterns of car sales and their socio-economic attributes in China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 27, 684–696 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-017-0902-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-017-0902-x