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Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model

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Abstract

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

    Dan Zhang, Guoli Wang & Huicheng Zhou

  2. Water Conservancy and Hydropower Science Research Institute of Liaoning Province, Shenyang, 110003, China

    Dan Zhang

Authors
  1. Dan Zhang
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  2. Guoli Wang
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  3. Huicheng Zhou
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guoli Wang.

Additional information

Foundation item: Under the auspices of Key Program of National Key Technology R & D Program of China (No. 2007BAB28B01)

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Zhang, D., Wang, G. & Zhou, H. Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 21, 167–175 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-011-0456-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-011-0456-2

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