Zusammenfassung
Diese Studie untersuchte anhand einer Stichprobe von 612 männlichen Sexualstraftätern die latenten Dimensionen aktuarischer Prognosevariablen, deren Entwicklung über das Täteralter und deren altersabhängige Bedeutung für die Prognose einschlägiger Rückfälle innerhalb eines Katamnesezeitraums von 5 Jahren. In Anlehnung an die Arbeiten von Roberts et al. [25] wurden hierfür 8 Items aus dem Static-99 und der Risk Matrix 2000 auf ihre faktorielle Struktur hin untersucht. Es resultierte eine Dreifaktorenlösung, die 63 % der Gesamtvarianz aufklärte und die Vorbefunde von Roberts et al. [25] weitgehend replizierte. Aus den Items wurden in Anlehnung an deren Vorarbeiten daher 3 Skalen [„sexuelle Devianz“, „Dissozialität“ und „Bindungsschwäche (‚detachment‘)“] gebildet und näher untersucht.
Die Analysen ergaben einen Anstieg der mittleren Ausprägung sexueller Devianz mit zunehmendem Alter der Täter, während keine altersabhängigen Unterschiede der Ausprägung dissozialer Merkmale beobachtet werden konnten. In Bezug auf den „detachment score“ wurde ein negativer Trend nachlassender Werte bei den älteren Tätergruppen deutlich. Alle 3 Skalen erwiesen sich in der Gesamtstichprobe als prognostisch bedeutsam. Bei näherer Untersuchung war jedoch nur die sexuelle Devianz in allen Altersgruppen prognoserelevant. Demgegenüber war die Dissozialität nur bei den älteren, Detachment hingegen nur bei den jüngeren Tätergruppen prognostisch von Bedeutung.
Abstract
Based on a sample of 612 male sex offenders, this study examined the latent dimensions of actuarial risk variables, their age-related development and their age-related relevance for the prediction of sexual recidivism within a follow-up period of 5 years. According to the work of Roberts et al. [25] 8 items from Static-99 and Risk Matrix 2000 were examined for their underlying factor structure. The result was a 3-factor solution, which accounted for 63% of the variance and largely replicated the previous findings by Roberts et al. [25]. Following these authors the three scales sexual deviance, dissociality and detachment were calculated from the risk variables and examined in detail.
The analysis revealed an increase in sexually deviant personality traits with advancing age of the offenders at the beginning of the follow-up period. No age-related changes were observed in dissocial characteristics. Concerning the detachment scale a negative correlation with the offenders age was apparent. All three risk scales proved to be prognostically relevant in the total sample. On closer examination, however, only sexual deviance showed prognostic relevance in all age groups. In contrast, dissociality was only relevant for the prediction of sexual recidivism in the older offender groups and detachment only in the younger offender groups.
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Janka, C., Gallasch-Nemitz, F. & Dahle, KP. Zur Altersabhängigkeit von Risikovariablen bei Sexualdelinquenz. Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol 5, 37–44 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11757-010-0087-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11757-010-0087-y