Skip to main content
Log in

Tree ring derived summer temperature variability over the past millennium in the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Frontiers of Earth Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Long-term high resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability particularly, in regions such as the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan, where few long-term climate records are available. Using standard dendrochronological methods, an 1132-year (882 to 2013 C.E.) tree-ring chronology of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb was established from the western Himalayas, northern Pakistan (WHNP). Tree growth was negatively and significantly (r = −0.65) correlated with the growing season (June–July) mean temperature, and positively and weakly (r = 0.22) associated with precipitation. This inverse relationship of tree radial growth with temperature and positive association with precipitation demonstrated that forest growth is sensitive to high temperature related drought. Utilizing a reliable STD chronology and robust reconstruction model, a 928-year (1086 to 2013 C.E.) mean temperature reconstruction was developed for the WHNP using the substantial negative correlation between the summer temperature and standard tree ring-width chronology. According to statistical validation, the reconstruction accounted for 41.6% of the climatic variation for the period of 1956–2013 C.E. instrumental period. Individual extreme-warm periods occurred in 1093 C.E. (29.42°C) and extreme cold periods in 1088 C.E. (26.99°C) observed during the past 928 years. The reconstruction’s multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis reveals significant (p < 0.05) 2–3-year and 63.8-year cycles. Since the 2–3-year cycle occurred within the range of ENSO variation, which indicates that ENSO had an impact on the regional temperature in our studied area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, Nawaz N (2018). Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan. Atmos Res, 214: 364–374

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed M, Palmer J, Khan N, Wahab M, Fenwick P, Esper J, Cook E (2011). The dendroclimatic potential of conifers from northern Pakistan. Dendrochronologia, 29(2): 77–88

    Google Scholar 

  • Asad F, Zhu H, Zhang H, Liang E, Muhammad S, Farhan S B, Hussain I, Wazir M A, Ahmed M, Esper J (2017). Are Karakoram temperatures out of phase compared to hemispheric trends? Clim Dyn, 48(9–10): 3381–3390

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharyya A, Shah S K, Chaudhary V (2006). Would tree ring data of Betula utilis be potential for the analysis of Himalayan glacial fluctuations? Curr Sci, 91(6): 754–761

    Google Scholar 

  • Bishop M P, Shroder J F Jr, Bonk R, Olsenholler J (2002). Geomorphic change in high mountains: a western Himalayan perspective. Global Planet Change, 32(4): 311–329

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley J G, Frey H, Kargel J S, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012). The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science, 336(6079): 310–314

    CAS  PubMed  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Borgaonkar H, Sabin T, Krishnan R (2020). Deciphering climate variability over western Himalaya using instrumental and tree-ring records. In: Himalayan Weather and Climate and their Impact on the Environment. New York: Springer, 205–238

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen F, Opała-Owczarek M, Khan A, Zhang H, Owczarek P, Chen Y, Ahmed M, Chen F (2021). Late twentieth century rapid increase in high Asian seasonal snow and glacier-derived streamflow tracked by tree rings of the upper Indus River basin. Environ Res Lett, 16(9): 094055

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Chhetri P (2008). Dendrochronological analyses and climate change perceptions in Langtang National Park, Central Nepal. Climate Change Disaster Impact Reduction, 28: 36–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Cogley J G (2012). Himalayan glaciers in the balance. Nature, 488(7412): 468–469

    CAS  PubMed  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Cook E R (1985). A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree Ring Standardization (Dendrochronology, Forestry, Dendroclimatology, Autoregressive Process). Dissertation for Doctoral Degree. Tucson: The University of Arizona

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A (1990). Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Springer Science & Business Media

  • Cook E R, Krusic P J, Jones, P D (2003). Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal. Intern J Climatol: J Royal Meteorol Soc, 23: 707–732

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Cook E R, Meko D M, Stahle D W, Cleaveland M K (1999). Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J Clim, 12(4): 1145–1162

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Cook E, Briffa K (1990). Data analysis. In: Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A, eds. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 97–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Dawadi B, Liang E, Tian L, Devkota L P, Yao T (2013). Pre-monsoon precipitation signal in tree rings of timberline Betula utilis in the central Himalayas. Quat Int, 283: 72–77

    Google Scholar 

  • Esper J (2000). Long-term tree-ring variations in Juniperus at the upper timber-line in the Karakorum (Pakistan). Holocene, 10(2): 253–260

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Esper J, Frank D C, Wilson R J, Büntgen U, Treydte K (2007). Uniform growth trends among central Asian low-and high-elevation juniper tree sites. Trees (Berl), 21(2): 141–150

    Google Scholar 

  • Esper J, Schweingruber F H, Winiger M (2002). 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings. Holocene, 12(3): 267–277

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Fowler H, Archer D (2006). Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. J Clim, 19(17): 4276–4293

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Fritts H (1976). Tree Rings and Climate. New York: Academic Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaire N P, Fan Z X, Shah S K, Thapa U K, Rokaya M B (2020). Tree-ring record of winter temperature from Humla, Karnali, in central Himalaya: a 229 years-long perspective for recent warming trend. Geogr Ann, Ser A, 102(3): 297–316

    Google Scholar 

  • Hewitt K (2002). Styles of rock-avalanche depositional complexes conditioned by very rugged terrain, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan. Rev Eng Geol, 15: 345–377

    Google Scholar 

  • Holmes R (1983). Computer assisted quality control. Tree-Ring Bull, 43: 69–78

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang J G, Zhang Q B (2007). Tree rings and climate for the last 680 years in Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Clim Change, 80(3–4): 369–377

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Asad F, Grießinger J (2019a). A tree-ring–based summer (June–July) minimum temperature reconstruction for the western Kunlun Mountains since AD 1681. Theor Appl Climatol, 138(1–2): 673–682

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Bräuning A, Zhong L, Xu C, Feng X, Asad F, Sigdel S R, Li L, Grießinger J (2022). Contribution of winter precipitation to tree growth persists until the late growing season in the Karakoram of northern Pakistan. J Hydrol (Amst), 607: 127513

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Liu B, Shi J, Zhang R, Yuan Y, Grießinger J (2019b). A tree ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since 1340 CE. Clim Dyn, 53(5–6): 3221–3233

    Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel W W, Droogers P, De Jong S, Bierkens M (2009). Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing. Remote Sens Environ, 113(1): 40–49

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Kamp U, Owen L A (2011). Late Quaternary glaciation of northern Pakistan. In: Ehlers J, Gibbard P L, Hughes P D, eds. Quaternary Glaciations- Extent and Chronology. Develop Quat Sci, vol. 15. Elsevier, 909–927

  • Kargel J S, Cogley J G, Leonard G J, Haritashya U, Byers A (2011). Himalayan glaciers: the big picture is a montage. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108(36): 14709–14710

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Keyimu M, Li Z, Liu G, Fu B, Fan Z, Wang X, Wu X, Zhang Y, Halik U (2021). Tree-ring based minimum temperature reconstruction on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Quat Sci Rev, 251: 106712

    Google Scholar 

  • Khan A, Ahmed M, Gaire N P, Iqbal J, Siddiqui M F, Khan A, Shah M, Hazrat A, Saqib N U, Mashwani W K, Shah S, Bhandari S (2021). Tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction from the western Himalayan region in northern Pakistan since 1705 CE. Arab J Geosci, 14(12): 1122

    Google Scholar 

  • Khan A, Chen F, Ahmed M, Zafar M U (2020). Rainfall reconstruction for the Karakoram region in Pakistan since 1540 CE reveals out-of-phase relationship in rainfall between the southern and northern slopes of the Hindukush-Karakorum-Western Himalaya region. Int J Climatol, 40(1): 52–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Kotlarski S, Moseley C, Sieck K, Frey H, Stoffel M, Jacob D (2015). Response of Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers to climate variability and climatic change: a regional climate model assessment. Geophys Res Lett, 42(6): 1818–1825

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liang E, Dawadi B, Pederson N, Eckstein D (2014). Is the growth of birch at the upper timberline in the Himalayas limited by moisture or by temperature? Ecology, 95(9): 2453–2465

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang E, Shao X, Qin N (2008). Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau. Global Planet Change, 61(3–4): 313–320

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liang E, Shao X, Xu Y (2009). Tree-ring evidence of recent abnormal warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Theor Appl Climatol, 98(1–2): 9–18

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Liang H, Lyu L, Wahab M (2016). A 382-year reconstruction of August mean minimum temperature from tree-ring maximum latewood density on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. Dendrochronologia, 37: 1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Lv L X, Zhang Q B (2013). Tree-ring based summer minimum temperature reconstruction for the southern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Clim Res, 56(2): 91–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazzarella A (2007). The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection. Theor Appl Climatol, 88(3–4): 193–199

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Opała M, Niedźwiedź T, Rahmonov O, Owczarek P, Małarzewski Ł (2017). Towards improving the Central Asian dendrochronological network—new data from Tajikistan, Pamir-Alay. Dendrochronologia, 41: 10–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Opała-Owczarek M, Niedźwiedź T, Rahmonov O, Owczarek P (2017). Millennia-long dendroclimatic records from the Pamir-Alay Mountains (Tajikistan) perspectives and limitations. In: Wistuba M, Cedro A, Malik L, Helle G, Gärtner H, eds. TRACE–Tree Rings in Archaeology, Climatology and Ecology, Vol. 15. Scientific Technical Report 17/04. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, 31–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabin T, Krishnan R, Vellore R, Priya P, Borgaonkar H, Singh B B, Sagar A (2020). Climate change over the Himalayas. In: Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Gnanaseelan C, Mujumdar M, Kulkarni S, Chakraborty S, eds. Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region. New York: Springer, 207–222

    Google Scholar 

  • Sarangzai A M, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Tareen L, Jan S U (2012). The ecology and dynamics of Juniperus excelsa forest in Balochistan-Pakistan. Pak J Bot, 44: 1617–1625

    Google Scholar 

  • Shekhar M, Bhardwaj A, Singh S, Ranhotra P S, Bhattacharyya A, Pal A K, Roy I, Martín-Torres F J, Zorzano M P (2017). Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age. Sci Rep, 7(1): 10305

    PubMed  PubMed Central  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Tao Q, Zhang Q B, Chen X (2021). Tree-ring reconstructed diurnal temperature range on the eastern Tibetan plateau and its linkage to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Int J Climatol, 41(3): 1696–1711

    Google Scholar 

  • Treydte K S, Schleser G H, Helle G, Frank D C, Winiger M, Haug G H, Esper J (2006). The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium. Nature, 440(7088): 1179–1182

    CAS  PubMed  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Wigley T M, Briffa K R, Jones P D (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim Appl Meteorol, 23(2): 201–213

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Yang X, Yao T, Deji, Zhao H, Xu B (2018). Possible ENSO influences on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau revealed by annually resolved ice core records. J Geophys Res Atmos, 123(8): 3857–3870

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Yu D P, Gu H Y, Wang J D, Wang Q L, Dai L M (2005). Relationships of climate change and tree ring of Betula ermanii tree line forest in Changbai Mountain. J For Res, 16(3): 187–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Zafar M U, Ahmed M, Rao M P, Buckley B M, Khan N, Wahab M, Palmer J (2016). Karakorum temperature out of phase with hemispheric trends for the past five centuries. Clim Dyn, 46(5–6): 1943–1952

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang F, Thapa S, Immerzeel W, Zhang H, Lutz A (2019). Water availability on the Third Pole: a review. Water Secur, 7: 100033

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H F, Shao X M, Yin Z Y, Xu P, Xu Y, Tian H (2011). August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 305(1–4): 84–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H, Huang R, Asad F, Liang E, Bräuning A, Zhang X, Dawadi B, Man W, Grießinger J (2021). Unexpected climate variability inferred from a 380-year tree-ring earlywood oxygen isotope record in the Karakoram, Northern Pakistan. Clim Dyn, 57(3–4): 701–715

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Muhammad Zafar and Adam Khan, who kindly provided their reconstruction data for comparison. We also thank the Pakistan Metrological Department for providing the station data. A special acknowledgment should be expressed to China-Pakistan joint research center of earth sciences that supported the implementation of this study. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42007407), the Sino-German mobility program (M-0393) and the China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences (No. 131551KYSB20200022).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fayaz Asad.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Asad, F., Zhu, H., Yaseen, T. et al. Tree ring derived summer temperature variability over the past millennium in the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan. Front. Earth Sci. 17, 1026–1036 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1072-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1072-4

Keywords

Navigation