Advertisement

Frontiers of Earth Science

, Volume 11, Issue 1, pp 46–62 | Cite as

Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

  • Hui ChenEmail author
  • Jing Meng
Research Article

Abstract

Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NOx emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

Keywords

Guangdong Province emissions inventory SO2 NOx PM2.5 scenario analyses 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2014A030310222).

References

  1. Bollen J, Brink C (2014). Air pollution policy in Europe: quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies. Energy Econ, 46: 202–215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Cai H, Xie S D (2007). Estimation of vehicular emission inventories in China from 1980 to 2005. Atmos Environ, 41(39): 8963–8979CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. CASY (2013). China Agriculture Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  4. CESY (2013). China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  5. Chang D, Song Y, Liu B (2009). Visibility trends in six megacities in China 1973–2007. Atmos Res, 94(2): 161–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chen F F, Chou S C, Lu T K (2013). Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan’s electricity sector until 2025. Energy Policy, 61: 162–171CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chen ZM, Chen G Q (2011). An overview of energy consumption of the globalized world economy. Energy Policy, 39(10): 5920–5928CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chen Z M, Chen G Q (2013). Demand-driven energy requirement of world economy 2007: a multi-region input-output network simulation. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul, 18(7): 1757–1774CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Chen Z M, Chen G Q, Zhou J B, Jiang M M, Chen B (2010). Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul, 15(7): 1942–1965CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Deng J J, Du K, Wang K, Yuan C S, Zhao J J (2012). Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973–2010. Atmos Environ, 59: 11–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. EPA (2009). Emissions Factors & AP 42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Also available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ ap42/index.htmlGoogle Scholar
  12. Feng L Y, Li J C, Pang X Q (2008). China’s oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models. Energy Policy, 36(11): 4149–4153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Garg A, Shukla P R, Bhattacharya S, Dadhwal V K (2001). Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility. Atmos Environ, 35(4): 703–713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. GSY (2013). Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2013. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  15. Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute (GEDI) (2013). Guangdong power supply situation analysis and responsed solutions (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  16. Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission (GDRC) (2013). Energy development strategy of Guangdong Province (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  17. He K B, Huo H, Zhang Q, He D Q, An F, Wang M, Walsh M P (2005). Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China’s road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications. Energy Policy, 33(12): 1499–1507CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hill S C, Douglas Smoot L (2000). Modeling of nitrogen oxides formation and destruction in combustion systems. Pror Energy Combust Sci, 26(4–6): 417–458CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hong Kong-Guangdong Joint Working Group on Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection (HG-JWGSDEP) (2005). Air Emission Inventory Handbook for Pearl River Delta Region. CH2MIDC Hong Kong Ltd., Hong Kong Hong Kong-Guangdong JointGoogle Scholar
  20. Working Group on Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection (HG-JWGSDEP) (2008). Pearl River Delta Regional Air Quality Management Plan Mid-term Review Report. Also available at: http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr07-08/ chinese/panels/ea/papers/ea0128cb1-666-4-ec.pdfGoogle Scholar
  21. Huang K, Fu J S, Gao Y, Dong X Y, Zhuang G S, Lin Y (2014). Role of sectoral and multi-pollutant emission control strategies in improving atmospheric visibility in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Environ Pollut, 184: 426–434CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Huang Y, Bor Y J, Peng C Y (2011). The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application. Energy Policy, 39(11): 6790–6803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Huang Y, Luo J W, Xia B (2013). Application of cleaner production as an important sustainable strategy in the ceramic tile plant–A case study in Guangzhou, China. J Clean Prod, 43: 113–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Jiang B B, Chen WY, Yu Y F, Zeng LM, David V (2008). The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: an assessment utilizing MARKAL. Energy Policy, 36(9): 3286–3299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Kanada M, Fujita T, Fujii M, Ohnishi S (2013). The long-term impacts of air pollution control policy: historical links between municipal actions and industrial energy efficiency in Kawasaki City, Japan. J Clean Prod, 58: 92–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Kikuchi Y, Kimura S, Okamoto Y, Koyama M (2014). A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options. Appl Energy, 132: 586–601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Klimont Z, Cofala J, Bertok I, Amann M, Heyes C, Gyarfas F (2002). Modelling particulate emissions in Europe. A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs IR-02-076, IIASA, Austria, In: http://www iiasa ac at/rains/reports htmlGoogle Scholar
  28. Kwon P S, Østergaard P (2014). Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario. Appl Energy, 134: 309–320CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Lei Y, Zhang Q, He K B, Streets D G (2011a). Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005. Atmos Chem Phys, 11(3): 931–954CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Lei Y, Zhang Q, Nielsen C, He K (2011b). An inventory of primary air pollutants and CO2 emissions from cement production in China, 1990–2020. Atmos Environ, 45(1): 147–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Li J S, Chen G Q, Hayat T, Alsaedi A (2015). Mercury emissions by Beijing’s fossil energy consumption: based on environmentally extended input–output analysis. Renew Sustain Energy Rev, 41: 1167–1175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Liang M C, Wang Y, Wang G H (2014). China’s Low-carbon-city development with ets: forecast on the energy consumption and carbon emission of Chongqing. Energy Procedia, 61: 2596–2599CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Liu F, Klimont Z, Zhang Q, Cofala J, Zhao L, Huo H, Nguyen B, Schöpp W, Sander R, Zheng B, Hong C P, He K, Amann M, Heyes C (2013). Integrating mitigation of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Chinese cities: development of GAINS-City model for Beijing. J Clean Prod, 58: 25–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Liu W, Li H (2011). Improving energy consumption structure: a comprehensive assessment of fossil energy subsidies reform in China. Energy Policy, 39(7): 4134–4143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Majumdar D, Gajghate D G (2011). Sectoral CO2, CH4, N2O and SO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in Nagpur City of Central India. Atmos Environ, 45(25): 4170–4179CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Meng J, Liu J F, Xu Y, Tao S (2015). Tracing Primary PM2.5 emissions via Chinese supply chains. Environ Res Lett, 10(5): 054005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2010). The manual of pollutants-producing and discharging coefficients from industrial sources. Also available at: http://www.cnemc.cn/publish/105/news/news_12893.html (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  38. Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2011). Main pollutant total emission reduction accounting rules during the 12th Five-year plans. Also available at: http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bwj/ 201206/t20120605_230944.htm (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  39. Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) (2014). The technical manual of emission inventories of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) (Exposure Draft). Available fromhttp://www.zhb.gov.cn/ gkml/hbb/bgth/201401/W020140124409250653376.pdf (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  40. Mo H Q, Li L, Lai W, Zhao M, Pu J G, Zhou Y, Deng S H (2015). Characterization of summer PM2.5 aerosols from four forest areas in Sichuan, SW China. Particuology, 20: 94–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Ohara T, Akimoto H, Kurokawa J I, Horii N, Yamaji K, Yan X, Hayasaka T (2007). An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980–2020. Atmos Chem Phys, 7(16): 4419–4444CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Pan L J, Xie Y B, Li W (2013). An analysis of emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Beijing based on the LEAP Model. Procedia Environ Sci, 18: 347–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2009). Measures on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province. Also available at: http://www.gd.gov. cn/govpub/zfwj/zfxxgk/gz/200903/t20090330_88639.htm (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  44. PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2014a). Action Plan on Low-Carbon Development for Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction in Guangdong Province (2014?2015). Also available at: http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939748/201410/t20141022_551390.html (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  45. PGGP (The people’s Government of Guangdong Province) (2014b). Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Guangdong Province (2014-2017). Also available at: http://zwgk. gd.gov.cn/006939748/201402/t20140214_467051.html (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  46. Pope C A, Dockery D W (2006). Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect. J Air Waste Manag Assoc, 56(6): 709–742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Pui D Y H, Chen S C, Zuo Z (2014). PM2.5 in China: measurements, sources, visibility and health effects, and mitigation. Particuology, 13: 1–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Qiu P P, Tian H Z, Zhu C Y, Liu K Y, Gao J J, Zhou J R (2014). An elaborate high resolution emission inventory of primary air pollutants for the Central Plain Urban Agglomeration of China. Atmos Environ, 86: 93–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Schreifels J J, Fu Y, Wilson E J (2012). Sulfur dioxide control in China: policy evolution during the 10th and 11th Five-year Plans and lessons for the future. Energy Policy, 48: 779–789CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Shabbir R, Ahmad S S (2010). Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model. Energy, 35(5): 2323–2332CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Song Y, Zhang Y, Dai W. (2011). PM2.5 sources and their effects on human health in China: case report. In: Nriagu J O, ed. Encyclopedia of Environmental Health. Burlington: Elsevier, 606–613Google Scholar
  52. Streets D G, Yarber K F, Woo J H, Carmichael G R (2003). Biomass burning in Asia: annual and seasonal estimates and atmospheric emissions. Global Biogeochem Cycles, 17(4): doi: 10.1029/2003GB002040Google Scholar
  53. Tang X L, Zhang Y, Yi H H, Ma J Y, Pu L (2012). Development a detailed inventory framework for estimating major pollutants emissions inventory for Yunnan Province, China. Atmos Environ, 57: 116–125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Tao Z, Zhao L, Changxin Z (2011). Research on the prospects of lowcarbon economic development in China based on LEAP model. Energy Procedia, 5: 695–699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wang H K, Fu L X, Bi J (2011). CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China. Energy Policy, 39(5): 3005–3011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Wang H, Wheeler D (2005). Financial incentives and endogenous enforcement in China’s pollution levy system. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 49(1): 174–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Wang Y S, Wang L L (2014). The sources, impact and regulation of atmospheric particulate matter. Sci Soc, 2: 9–18 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  58. Wang Y, Li J W (2008). China’s present situation of coal consumption and future coal demand forecast. China Population. Chn Popu Res Envi, 18(3): 152–155CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Winther M (2008). New national emission inventory for navigation in Denmark. Atmos Environ, 42(19): 4632–4655CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Xue B, Mitchell B, Geng Y, Ren W X, Müller K, Ma Z X, Puppim de Oliveira J A, Fujita T, Tobias M (2014). A review on China’s pollutant emissions reduction assessment. Ecol Indic, 38: 272–278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Ying Q, Kleeman M J (2006). Source contributions to the regional distribution of secondary particulate matter in California. Atmos Environ, 40(4): 736–752CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Zhang B, Chen Z M, Xia X H, Xu X Y, Chen Y B (2013). The impact of domestic trade on China’s regional energy uses: a multi-regional input–output modeling. Energy Policy, 63: 1169–1181CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Zhang H F, Ye X N, Cheng T T, Chen J M, Yang X, Wang L, Zhang R Y (2008b). A laboratory study of agricultural crop residue combustion in China: emission factors and emission inventory. Atmos Environ, 42(36): 8432–8441CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Zhang H, Ye X, Cheng T, Chen J, Yang X, Wang L, Zhang R (2008a). A laboratory study of agricultural crop residue combustion in China: emission factors and emission inventory. Atmos Environ, 42(36): 8432–8441CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Zhang H, Zhang B, Bi J (2015). More efforts, more benefits: air pollutant control of coal-fired power plants in China. Energy, 80: 1–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Zhao B, Ma J Z (2008). Development of an air pollutant emissions inventory for Tianjin Acta Scientiae Cirsumstantiae, 28(2): 368–375 (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  67. Zhao Z Y, Chang R D, Zillante G (2014). Challenges for China’s energy conservation and emission reduction. Energy Policy, 74: 709–713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Zheng J Y, Zhang L J, Che W W, Zheng Z Y, Yin S S (2009). A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment. Atmos Environ, 43(32): 5112–5122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Zhou X S, Tong L, Han J H, Guo S (2013). The necessity of oil products standard promotion to improve the air quality. Petroleum Refinery Engineering, 43(07): 61–64 (in Chinese)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Guangdong Electric Power Design InstituteGuangzhouChina
  2. 2.Institute of Energy, Environment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations