Frontiers of Earth Science

, Volume 11, Issue 1, pp 46–62 | Cite as

Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

  • Hui ChenEmail author
  • Jing Meng
Research Article


Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NOx emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.


Guangdong Province emissions inventory SO2 NOx PM2.5 scenario analyses 


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This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2014A030310222).


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Copyright information

© Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Guangdong Electric Power Design InstituteGuangzhouChina
  2. 2.Institute of Energy, Environment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  3. 3.Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina

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