Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Frontiers of Earth Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Brechling V J (1995). A Methodology for the Economic Assessment of Nondestructive Evaluation Techniques Used in Aircraft Inspection. Report No. DOT/FAA/AR-95/101 National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, USA

  • Clark RM, Carson J H, Thurnau R C, Krishnan E R, Panguluri S (2010). Condition assessment modeling for distribution systems using shared frailty analysis. JAWWA, 7(102): 81–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark R M, Sivaganesan M, Selvakumar A, Sethi V (2002). Costs models for water supply distribution systems. J Water Resour Plan Manage, 128(5): 312–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galleher J J, Holley M, Shenkiryk M, Eaton G (2007). Snap, crack, pop-Recording of a prestressed pipe failure. Advances and Experiences in with Trenchless Projects, ASCE, 1–9

  • Higgins M S, Gadoury, Razza R, Mead I (2007). Technologies to assess and manage providence’s water’s 102 inch PCCP aqueduct. Advances and Experiences with Trenchless Projects, ASCE, 1–8

  • Lam K F, Kuk A Y C (1997). A marginal likelihood approach to estimation in frailty models. J Am Stat Assoc, 439(92): 985–990

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Padewski E, Leshner N, Woodcock M, Higgins M (2007). Assessing PCCP Transmission Mains. Pipelines Specialty Conference, ASCE, 1–6

  • Rajani B, Kleiner Y (2004). Non-destructive Techniques to Determine Structural Distress Indicators in Water Mains. In: Evaluation and Control of Water Loss in Urban Networks, Valencia, Spain, June 21–25, 1–20

  • Rogers P D (2006). Failure assessment model to prioritize pipe replacement in water utility asset management. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Colorado State University

  • Royer M D (2005). White paper on improvement of structural integrity monitoring for drinking water mains. National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, USEPA, Cincinnati, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • USEPA (2007). Distribution System Inventory, Integrity and Water Quality. Office of Water, Washington DC, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Wall M, Wedgewood F A, Martens W (1998). Economic assessment of inspection-The inspection value method. NDT.net, 3(12)

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Engineering and Public Health Consultant, 9627 Lansford Drive, Cincinnati, OH, 45242, USA

    Robert M. Clark

  2. Project Manager and Principal Investigator, Eastern Research Group, Cincinnati, OH, 45242, USA

    Robert C. Thurnau

Authors
  1. Robert M. Clark
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Robert C. Thurnau
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Robert M. Clark.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Clark, R.M., Thurnau, R.C. Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model. Front. Earth Sci. 5, 400–405 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0195-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-011-0195-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation