Obesity Surgery

, Volume 28, Issue 12, pp 3769–3774 | Cite as

The Use of Predictive Markers for the Development of a Model to Predict Weight Loss Following Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy

  • Samuel Cottam
  • Daniel Cottam
  • Austin Cottam
  • Hinali Zaveri
  • Amit Surve
  • Christina Richards
Original Contributions



Average percent excess weight loss data is commonly discussed preoperatively to guide patient expectations following surgery. However, there is a wide range and variation in weight loss following vertical sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Unfortunately, most surgeons and even fewer patients have heard of using predictive models to help guide their decisions on procedure choice. We have developed a predictive model for SG to help patient choice prior to this major life-changing decision.


Predict weight loss results for SG patients at 1 year using preoperative data.


Private practice.


Three hundred and seventy-one SG patients met the criteria for our study. These patients underwent surgery between October 2008 and June 2016. Non-linear regressions were performed to interpolate individual patient weights at 1 year. Multivariate analysis was used to find factors that affected weight loss. A model was constructed to predict weight loss performance.


Variables that affect weight loss were found to be preoperative body mass index (BMI), age, hypertension, and diabetes. Diabetes and hypertension together were found to significantly affect weight loss.


Patient weight loss can be accurately predicted by simple preoperative factors. These findings should be used to help patients and surgeons decide if the SG is an appropriate surgery for each patient. Using this model, most patients can avoid failure by choosing an appropriate surgical approach for their personal circumstances.


Sleeve gastrectomy Predictive modeling Hypertension BMI Age Diabetes 


Compliance with Ethical Standards

Conflict of Interest

Author one has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Author two, the corresponding author, reports personal fees from Medtronic, outside the submitted work.

Author three has no conflict of interest to declare.

Author four has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Author five has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Author six has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Statement of Human and Animal Rights

All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

Since this is a retrospective study, formal consent is not required.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Bariatric Medicine InstituteSalt Lake CityUSA

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