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Assessing vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey

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Abstract

Climate change is a real, pressing and significant global problem. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, and physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modelling evaluated the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change and variability with regard to land degradation. This produced data and developed tools to support better decision-making and management. As a result, the geographical distribution of Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is the estimated Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. These revealed that, at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement, and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a “very low” degree of vulnerability covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and agricultural lands found principally over the low, flat travertine plateau and the plains to the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs of the forest ecosystem under current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as “very low” accounted for 21% of the area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as “low” for 36%, those classed as “medium” for 20%, and those classed as “high” for 24%.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and Turkish General Directorate of Forestry for giving us this opportunity. Special thanks to Dr. Valentina Garavaglia of FAO for her professional guidance and valuable support and to Dr. Neşat Erkan for his useful and constructive recommendations on this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    Orkan Özcan

  2. Geomatics Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    Nebiye Musaoğlu

  3. Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Bebek, 34342, Istanbul, Turkey

    Murat Türkeş

Authors
  1. Orkan Özcan
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  2. Nebiye Musaoğlu
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  3. Murat Türkeş
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Orkan Özcan.

Additional information

Corresponding editor: Hu Yanbo.

Project Funding: This work was supported by the French Global Environment Facility (FFEM) Project (GCP/GLO/458/FRA).

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Özcan, O., Musaoğlu, N. & Türkeş, M. Assessing vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey. J. For. Res. 29, 709–725 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-017-0505-5

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