Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A statistical analysis of spatiotemporal variations and determinant factors of forest carbon storage under China’s Natural Forest Protection Program

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Forestry Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) is one of the key ecological forestry programs in China. It not only facilitates the improvement of forest ecological quality in NFPP areas, but also plays a significant role in increasing the carbon storage of forest ecosystems. The program covers 17 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities with correspondingly diverse forest resources and environments, ecological features, engineering measures and forest management regimes, all of which affect regional carbon storage. In this study, volume of timber harvest, tending area, pest-infested forest, fire-damaged forest, reforestation, and average annual precipitation, and temperature were evaluated as factors that influence carbon storage. We developed a vector autoregression model for these seven indicators and we studied the dominant factors of carbon storage in the areas covered by NFPP. Timber harvest was the dominant factor influencing carbon storage in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. Reforestation contributed most to carbon storage in the state-owned forest region in Xinjiang. In state-owned forest regions of Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces, the dominant factors were forest fires and forest cultivation, respectively. For the enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity, a longer rotation period and a smaller timber harvest are recommended for the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. Trees should be planted in state-owned forests in Xinjiang. Forest fires should be prevented in state-owned forests in Heilongjiang, and greater forest tending efforts should be made in the state-owned forests in Jilin.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Cai LX (2014) Forest protection program in Xinjiang and state forest management reform. For Econ 36(2):61–67 (in Chinese with english abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cao SX, Wang XQ, Song YZ, Chen L, Feng Q (2010) Impacts of the Natural Forest Conservation Program on the livelihoods of residents of Northwestern China: perceptions of residents affected by the program. Ecol Econ 69(7):1454–1462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YL, Luo GP, Ye H, Zhao SB, Wang YG, Han QF (2011) Sources and sinks of carbon from forest land use change in Xinjiang, China during 1975–2005. Geograph Res 32(11):1987–1999

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheng Y (2009) A study on factors affect China’s price fluctuation in open economy. Xiamen University, Xiamen, pp 31–32 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • China Forestry Statistics Yearbook (1977–2013). China Forestry Press, Beijing

  • Chinese Ministry of Forestry (1982, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014) Forest Resource Statistics of China (1977–1981, 1984–1988, 1989–1993, 1994–1998, 1999–2003, 2004–2008, 2009–2013). Department of Forest Resource and Management, Chinese Ministry of Forestry, Beijing, China

  • Cui HR, Wang D (2010) A study of China’s energy-economy-environment system based on VAR model. J Beijing Inst Technol (Social Science Edition) 12(1):23–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Edstrom F, Nilsson H, Stage J (2012) The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: a contingent valuation study in Heilongjiang province. J Environ Sci Eng B 1(3):426–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang JY, Chen AP, Peng CH, Zhao SQ, Ci LJ (2001) Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998. Science 291(5525):2320–2322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang JY, Guo ZD, Piao SL, Chen AP (2007) Terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks in China, 1981-2000. Sci China Earth Sci 50(9):1341–1350

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gao TM (2006) Econometric analysis and modeling-application and example of Eviews. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing, pp 164–205 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo ZD, Hu HF, Li P, Li NY, Fang JY (2013) Spatio-temporal changes in biomass carbon sinks in China’s forests from 1977 to 2008. Sci China Life Sci 56(7):661–671

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Horst W, Andreas W, Fredrich K (2005) Local impacts and responses to regional forest conservation and rehabilitation programs in China’s northwest Yunnan province. Agric Syst 85(3):234–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu HF, Liu GH (2006) Carbon sequestration of China’s National Natural Forest Protection Project. Acta Ecol Sin 26(1):291–296 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li S (2012) Study on the forest carbon sink capacity of state-owned forestry industry regions in Jilin province. Northeast Forestry University (in Chinese with English Abstract)

  • Liu H, Wang XF, Chen SJ, Huo P (2005) Dynamic analysis and evaluation of Xinjiang forest resources: based on RS and GIS. J Geog Sci 15(3):346–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu JG, Li SX, Ouyang ZY, Tam C, Chen XD (2008) Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China’s policies for ecosystem services. PNAS 105(28):9477–9482

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Luo J, Zhou GH, Lai JM, Hu TX, Zhao AJ, Huang CD (2010) Application of remote sensing technique to monitoring the natural forest resources in western Sichuan. J Sichuan Agric Univ 28(3):313–318 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ren GP, Young SS, Wang L, Wang W, Long YC, Wu RD, Li JS, Zhu JG, Yu DW (2015) Effectiveness of China’s national forest protection program and nature reserves. Conserv Biol 29(5):1368–1377

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Shi L (2011) Dynamic change of forests in Xinjiang in recent 25 Years. Arid Zone Res 28(1):17–24 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XK, Feng ZW, Zhuang YH (2001) CO2, CO and CH4 emission from forest fires in China. Scientia Silvae Sinicae 37(1):90–95 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XC, Qi G, Yu DP, Zhou L, Dai LM (2011) Carbon storage, density, and distribution in forest ecosystems in Jilin province of northeast China. Chin J Appl Ecol 22(8):2013–2020 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wei YW, Dai LM, Fang XM, Zhao W (2013) Estimating forest ecosystem carbon storage under the Natural Forest Protection Program in Northeast China. Paper presented at: 2nd International Conference on Energy and Environmental Protection (ICEEP 2013), Guilin, Peoplesr China

  • Wu RD, Zhang S, Yu DW, Zhao P, Li XH, Wang LZ, Yu Q, Ma J, Chen A, Long YC (2011) Effectiveness of China’s nature reserves in representing ecological diversity. Front Ecol Environ 9(7):383–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu SN, Li YQ, Yu DP, Zhou L, Zhou WM, Guo Y, Wang XY, Dai LM (2015) Analysis of factors that influence forest vegetation carbon storage by using the VAR model: a case study in Shaanxi Province. Acta Ecol Sin 35(1):196–203 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie Y, Zhang JC (2002) Forest protecting from a viewpoint of soil and water loss actuality of Huanghe River and Changjiang River Valley. J Nanjing For Univ 26(6):88–92 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu HC (1998) Daxinanling forest in China. Science Press, Beijing, pp 184–220 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu SS (2011) Research on forest carbon sequestration in China: a case study of forest industrial state-owned region in Heilongjiang Province. Economic Science Press, Beijing, pp 112–140 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu DY, Shi PJ, Han GY, Zhu WQ, Du SQ, Xun B (2011) Forest ecosystem restoration due to a national conservation plan in China. Ecol Eng 37(9):1387–1397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang YQ (2012) On the identification issues of the structural VAR models: a review. J Appl Stat Manag 31(5):805–812 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang PC, Shao GF, Zhao G, LeMaster DC, Parker GR, Dunning JB, Li QL (2000) China’s forest policy for the 21st century. Science 288(5474):2135–2136

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang K, Hori Y, Zhou SZ, Michinaka T, Hirano Y, Tachibana S (2011) Impact of Natural Forest Protection Program policies on forests in northeastern China. For Stud China 13(3):231–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou WM, Lewis BJ, Wu SN, Yu DP, Zhou L, Wei YW, Dai LM (2014) Biomass carbon storage and its sequestration potential of afforestation under Natural Forest Protection Program in China. Chin Geogr Sci 24(4):406–413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu HM, Han YQ, Zheng JC (2005) Bayesian ARP models for forecasting based on Normal-Gamma conjugate prior distribution. Stat Dec 2:8–9 (in Chinese with English Abstract)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, People’s Republic of China

    Shengnan Wu, Wangming Zhou, Bernard Joseph Lewis, Dapao Yu, Li Zhou, Linhai Jiang & Limin Dai

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, People’s Republic of China

    Shengnan Wu & Linhai Jiang

  3. School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, People’s Republic of China

    Jiaqi Li

Authors
  1. Shengnan Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jiaqi Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wangming Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Bernard Joseph Lewis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Dapao Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Li Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Linhai Jiang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Limin Dai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wangming Zhou.

Additional information

Project funding: This study was funded by Special Research Project of Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS (No. Y5YZX151YD) and Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS (No. LFEM2016-05).

The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com

Corresponding editor: Hu Yanbo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wu, S., Li, J., Zhou, W. et al. A statistical analysis of spatiotemporal variations and determinant factors of forest carbon storage under China’s Natural Forest Protection Program. J. For. Res. 29, 415–424 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-017-0462-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-017-0462-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation