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Reliability Evaluation of Environmental Test Chambers Based on Bayesian Network

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Abstract

Emphasis has been given to the reliability of a wide range of equipment in recent years. However, the reliability of environmental test chambers has received little research attention. In this paper, the Bayesian network (BN) model is proposed to evaluate the reliability of the chambers for the first time. This paper is an important supplement to reliability research on test chambers, and it proposes a novel reliability assessment approach that involves the following: (1) the maximum information coefficient is used to select components that are particularly important for system failures; (2) failure mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis are used to initially establish the logical relationship between components; (3) max-min hill-climbing algorithm is used to learn the final BN structure; and (4) the Poisson process is introduced to calculate the failure probability of these components. Results show that BN describes the directional and quantitative dependencies between components in more detail than fault tree does. The failure rate predicted by BN is consistent with the actual data, and the determination coefficient (R2) is 0.6. At present, the mean time between failures of a single chamber is approximately 20 days. According to the reliability threshold, the cumulative failure times of the chambers can be predicted, and most of the forecast errors are within 6 days. When the chambers fail, the structural importance of the components is shown, and a reasonable fault diagnosis sequence is provided by the proposed BN model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China

    Huajian Yang, Wangqiang Niu, Chengjing Han, Xianwen Zhou & Wei Gu

Authors
  1. Huajian Yang
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  2. Wangqiang Niu
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  3. Chengjing Han
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  4. Xianwen Zhou
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  5. Wei Gu
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Correspondence to Wangqiang Niu.

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Appendix

Appendix

Symbols and corresponding meanings:

Symbols

Meanings

Symbols

Meanings

M

Chamber

X18

Back pressure valve

Y1

Refrigeration system

X21(X4)

Electric appliance

Y2

Electrical system

X22(X5)

Humidifier

Y3

Control system

X23(X6)

Solid-state relay

Y4

Humidification system

X24

Cooling fan

Y5

Air circulation system

X25

Contactor

X11(X10)

Condenser

X26

Air switch

X12(X1)

Solenoid valve

X31(X7)

PLC-I/O

X13(X2)

Compressor

X32(X8)

Temperature sensor

X14(X3)

Evaporator

X33(X9)

Over-temperature protector

X15

Expansion valve

X34

Control software

X16

Refrigerating oil

X35

Controller power supply

X17

Filter drier

X36

Humidity sensor

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Yang, H., Niu, W., Han, C. et al. Reliability Evaluation of Environmental Test Chambers Based on Bayesian Network. J Fail. Anal. and Preven. 23, 2471–2488 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-023-01753-1

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