Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention

, Volume 17, Issue 3, pp 462–476 | Cite as

A Hybrid Probabilistic Model for Evaluating and Simulating Human Error in Industrial Emergency Conditions (HEIE)

  • Antonella Petrillo
  • Fabio De Felice
  • Domenico Falcone
  • Alessandro Silvestri
  • Federico Zomparelli
Technical Article---Peer-Reviewed


Over the years, many techniques have been developed for human reliability analysis (HRA). The main weakness of traditional HRA approaches is the use of a simple classification scheme without a link to a model of cognition in terms of mental processes. The present work is an attempt in this direction through a particular hybrid probabilistic model. The human error in industrial emergency model aims to develop an integrated methodological approach useful in critical infrastructures during an emergency condition. The proposed method, starting from the integration of existing techniques, develops a very flexible tool, able to take into account the main external and internal factors responsible of human error in emergency conditions. The model is able to estimate the evolution of human behavior and error following the evolution of the emergency scenario. The final result is a simulation model that calculates the contextualized human error probability, through which it is possible to estimate a realistic and detailed scenario of the conditions during the emergency management.


Human reliability analysis Cognitive simulation Disaster Failure analysis Industrial plant 



This research represents a result of research activity carried out with the financial support of MiuR, namely PRIN 2012 “DIEM-SSP, Disasters and Emergencies Management for Safety and Security in industrial Plants”.


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Copyright information

© ASM International 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Antonella Petrillo
    • 1
  • Fabio De Felice
    • 2
  • Domenico Falcone
    • 2
  • Alessandro Silvestri
    • 2
  • Federico Zomparelli
    • 2
  1. 1.University of Naples “Parthenope”NaplesItaly
  2. 2.University of Cassino and Southern LazioCassinoItaly

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