Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention

, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp 129–138 | Cite as

Development of an Efficient Prognostic Estimator

  • Jae Yoon
  • David He
Technical Article---Peer-Reviewed


In this paper, the development of a new prognostic estimation technique for on-line gear health management system is described and demonstrated with real spiral bevel gear run-to-failure test data. Unlike conventional particle filter-based prognostic estimation methods, the prognostic technique presented in this paper is a hybrid of the unscented Kalman filter and particle filter. It is designed to improve the processing efficiency whilst the state estimation accuracy is maintained. The unscented Kalman filter is utilized to obtain the “best estimate” of the states of a degrading nonlinear component and the particle filter l-step ahead prediction technique is employed to obtain the remaining useful life of the component. In addition, data mining techniques are applied to efficiently define the system dynamics model, observation model, and predicted measurement information for the prognostic estimator. At last, the feasibility of the presented prognostic estimator is demonstrated with satisfactory results using the actual oil debris mass and health index data obtained from a spiral bevel gear test rig.


Bevel gear CBM Condition-based management Health management Particle filter Prognostic estimator Prognostics Unscented Kalman filter Data mining 



The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and data provided by Dr. Paula Dempsey that have made this paper possible.


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Copyright information

© ASM International 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Mechanical and Industrial EngineeringUniversity of Illinois at ChicagoChicagoUSA

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