Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model

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This article estimates the present and future burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France in women aged 50 years and over.


We adapted an existing model developed for Sweden to France. For each year of the study from 1970 to 2020, the ‘incident cohort’ (women experiencing a first osteoporotic fracture) was identified and run through a Markov model using annual cycles. Health states were based on the number of fractures (hip, vertebral, non-hip non-vertebral) and deaths. Transition probabilities reflected fracture site-specific risks of subsequent fractures and of death. Country-specific model inputs included population size and life tables from 1970 to 2020 and incidence of hip fracture.


The model estimated that the number of postmenopausal osteoporotic women was expected to increase from 3.0 million to 3.4 million between 2010 and 2020 (+15.3 %). Assuming that the incidence of fracture by age group does not change over time, the model predicted that the overall number of osteoporotic fractures would increase from 204,234 fractures in 2010 to 241,261 in 2020 (+18.1 %), hip (20.3 %), vertebral (19.0 %) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures (17.0 %).


The aging of the population is expected to drive a marked increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis and in the number of osteoporotic fractures. These data may assist future planning for appropriate heath care provision.

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This study was supported by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and funded by Amgen (Europe) GmbH. The authors thank Dr. Matthew Gitlin and Valérie Tochon from Amgen (Europe) GmbH for their involvement in this project and Professor Alistair McGuire from the London School of Economics for his advice on the model development. Funds were provided by Amgen (Europe) GmbH and GlaxoSmithKline to Bioscript Stirling for minor editing and styling support.

Conflicts of interest

This study was funded by Amgen SAS, Neuilly-sur-Seine, France. Consultant/advisory activities have been provided to Amgen SAS by Dr M Maravic (3M Conseils) and Prof P Fardellone. Prof J Compston has received grant funding from Osteotronix and Nycomed; received speaking and/or advisory fees from Novartis, Amgen, Servier, GSK, Gilead, Procter & Gamble/Sanofi Aventis, Eli Lilly, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Medtronic and Warner-Chilcott; and has provided consultancy to Novartis and Amgen. The work undertaken by Aline Gauthier, Hélène Cawston and Fredrik Borgstrom on the analysis and model development was done under contract to Amgen. Prof J Compston contributed to the design, interpretation of data, manuscript revision and final approval. Prof E McCloskey and Prof JA Kanis have no conflicts of interest with regard to this paper. Prof C Cooper has no declared conflicts of interest.

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Correspondence to M. Maravic.

Additional information

Consultant/advisory activities: Dr M Maravic (3M Conseils) and Pr P Fardellone.

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Cawston, H., Maravic, M., Fardellone, P. et al. Epidemiological burden of postmenopausal osteoporosis in France from 2010 to 2020: estimations from a disease model. Arch Osteoporos 7, 237–246 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11657-012-0102-3

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  • Bone mineral density
  • Epidemiology
  • Fracture
  • France
  • Osteoporosis
  • T score