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Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya

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Abstract

The geological and geographical position of the Northwest Himalayas makes it a vulnerable area for mass movements particularly landslides and debris flows. Mass movements have had a substantial impact on the study area which is extending along Karakorum Highway (KKH) from Besham to Chilas. Intense seismicity, deep gorges, steep terrain and extreme climatic events trigger multiple mountain hazards along the KKH, among which debris flow is recognized as the most destructive geohazard. This study aims to prepare a field-based debris flow inventory map at a regional scale along a 200 km stretch from Besham to Chilas. A total of 117 debris flows were identified in the field, and subsequently, a point-based debris-flow inventory and catchment delineation were performed through ArcGIS analysis. Regional scale debris flow susceptibility and propagation maps were prepared using Weighted Overlay Method (WOM) and Flow-R technique sequentially. Predisposing factors include slope, slope aspect, elevation, Topographic Roughness Index (TRI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), stream buffer, distance to faults, lithology rainfall, curvature, and collapsed material layer. The dataset was randomly divided into training data (75%) and validation data (25%). Results were validated through the Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve. Results show that Area Under the Curve (AUC) using WOM model is 79.2%. Flow-R propagation of debris flow shows that the 13.15%, 22.94%, and 63.91% areas are very high, high, and low susceptible to debris flow respectively. The propagation predicated by Flow-R validates the naturally occurring debris flow propagation as observed in the field surveys. The output of this research will provide valuable input to the decision makers for the site selection, designing of the prevention system, and for the protection of current infrastructure.

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Availability of Data/Materials: The datasets generated during this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request and within the framework of cooperation agreements and scientific research projects.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan (HEC) grant under National Research Program for Universities (NRPU) with No: (20-14681/NRPU/R&D/HEC/20212021).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Hamza Daud & Ishtiaq Ahmad Khan Jadoon

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, Islamabad, 22010, Pakistan

    Hamza Daud, Javed Iqbal Tanoli, Sardar Muhammad Asif & Muhammad Ali

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-Khoud, Mascat, 123, Oman

    Muhammad Qasim

  4. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, 430074, China

    Junaid Khan

  5. Department of Earth Sciences, Abbottabad University of Science and Technology, Havelian, Abbottabad, 22500, Pakistan

    Zahid Imran Bhatti

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  1. Hamza Daud
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  2. Javed Iqbal Tanoli
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  3. Sardar Muhammad Asif
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  4. Muhammad Qasim
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  5. Muhammad Ali
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  8. Ishtiaq Ahmad Khan Jadoon
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Contributions

Hamza Daud: Writing–original draft, Software, Validation, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Investigation, Data curation; Javed Iqbal Tanoli: Conceptualization, Writing–review & editing, Project administration, Supervision, Funding, acquisition; Sardar Muhammad Asif: Software, Data curation, Formal Analysis; Muhammad Qasim: Resources, Methodology, Writing–review & editing, Validation; Muhammad Ali: Software, Validation, Formal Analysis; Junaid Khan: Visualization, Investigation; Zahid Imran Bhatti: Writing–review & editing; Ishtiaq Ahmad Khan Jadoon: Project administration, Writing–review & editing, Validation

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Javed Iqbal Tanoli.

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Conflict of Interest:The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Daud, H., Tanoli, J.I., Asif, S.M. et al. Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya. J. Mt. Sci. 21, 200–217 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-023-7966-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-023-7966-0

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