Abstract
In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine (ELM) and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) were chosen to predict the periodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded by National Key R&D Program of China (No.2018YFC0809400), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41772310 and No.41842062) and China Geological Survey Foundation (No.DD20190641). The authors would like to sincerely thank Weiming Cheng and Xiaolin Fu from Wuhan Centre of Geological Survey, China Geological Survey for their great help in providing the landslide material and monitoring data.
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Li, Dy., Sun, Yq., Yin, Kl. et al. Displacement characteristics and prediction of Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir. J. Mt. Sci. 16, 2203–2214 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5470-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5470-3