Advertisement

Journal of Mountain Science

, Volume 12, Issue 5, pp 1169–1180 | Cite as

Risk assessment of disaster chain: Experience from Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides in China

  • Hong-jian ZhouEmail author
  • Xi Wang
  • Yi Yuan
Article

Abstract

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark’s permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazard-formative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.

Keywords

Disaster chain Risk assessment Wenchuan Earthquake Landslide 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Cao WC, Tao HP, Liu BT, et al. (2011) Comprehensive assessment of secondary geological disaster risk caused by Wenchuan earthquake: Taking Chongzhou city as an example. Chinese Journal of Ecology 30 (1): 170–176. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  2. Carpignano A, Golia E, Di Mauro C, et al. (2009) A methodological approach for the definition of multi-risk maps at regional level: first application. Journal of Risk Research 12 (3-4): 513–534. DOI: 10.1080/13669870903050269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. CAWED (Committee for Atlas of Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster) (2008) Atlas of Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster. Chengdu Map Press, Chengdu, China. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  4. Chadha RK, Papadopoulos GA, Karanci AN (2007) Disasters due to natural hazards. Nat Hazards 40 (3): 501–502. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9010-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Coburn AW, Spence RJS, Pomonis A (1994) Vulnerability and risk assessment (2nd Edition). Cambridge Architectural Research Limited, Cambridg, UKGoogle Scholar
  6. Cui P, Chen XQ, Zhu YY, et al (2011) The Wenchuan earthquake (May 12, 2008), Sichuan Province, China, and resulting geohazards. Natural Hazards 56 (1): 19–36. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9392-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dai FC, Lee CF, Deng JH, et al. (2005) The 1786 earthquaketriggered landslide dam and subsequent dambreak flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China. Geomorphology 65 (3-4): 205–221. DOI:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.08.011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Delmonaco G, Margottini C, Spizzichino D (2006) ARMONIA methodology for multi-risk assessment and the harmonization of different natural risk maps. Available online at: http://forum.eionet.europa.eu/eionet-airclimate/library/ public/2010_citiesproject/interchange/armonia_project/arm onia_project_5/download/1/ARMONIA_PROJECT_Delivera ble%203.1.1.pdf (Accessed on 12 December 2014).Google Scholar
  9. Fan J (2009) Resources and environment carrying capacity evaluation (National Wenchuan Earthquake Reconstruction Planning). Science Press, Beijing, China. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  10. Fan JR, Chen JX, Tian BW, et al. (2010) Rapid assessment of secondary disasters induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Computing in Science & Engineering 12 (1): 10–19. DOI: 10.1109/MCSE.2010.16CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Gong J, Wang D, Li Y, et al. (2010) Earthquake-induced geological hazards detection under hierarchical stripping classification framework in the Beichuan area. Landslides 7: 181–189. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-010-0201-4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Huang RQ (2009) Geological disasters induced by Wenchuan Earthquake. Science Press, Beijing, China. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  13. Jibson RW, Harp EL, Michael JA (2000) A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps. Engineering Geology 58: 271–289. DOI: 10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00039-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jibson RW (2007) Regression models for estimating co-seismic landslide displacement. Engineering Geology 91 (2-4): 209–218. DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Meunier P, Hovius N, Haines AJ (2007) Regional patterns of earthquake-triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (20): 1–5. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Newmark NM (1965) Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments. Géotechnique 15 (2): 139–160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Qi S, Xu Q, Liu C, et al. (2009) Slope instabilities in the severest disaster areas of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake. Chinese Journal of Engineering Geology 17 (1): 39–49. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2009.01.005 (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  18. Qi S, Xu Q, Lan H, et al. (2010) Spatial distribution analysis of landslides triggered by 2008.5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, China. Engineering Geology 116: 95–108. DOI: 10.1016/ J.enggeo.2010.07.011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Guha-Sapir D, Hoyois P, Below R (2012) Annual disaster statistical review 2012: The numbers and trends. Available online at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ADSR_2012.pdf (Accessed on 12 December 2014)Google Scholar
  20. Shen Z, Sun J, Zhang P, et al. (2009) Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Nature Geosicnece 2: 718–724. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo636CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Shi P (1991) Theory and Practice of Disaster Studies, Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Sciences) (Special): 37–42. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  22. Shi P, Li N, Ye Q, et al. (2010a) Research on integrated disaster risk governance in the context of global environmental change. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 1 (1): 17–23. DOI: 10.3974/j.issn.2095-0055.2010.01.004Google Scholar
  23. Shi P, Shuai J, Chen W, et al. (2010b) Study on large-scale disaster risk assessment and risk transfer models. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 1 (2): 1–8. DOI: 10.3974/j.issn.2095-0055.2010.02.001Google Scholar
  24. Shi P (2011) Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk of China, Science Press, Beijing, China. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  25. Tian B, Wang L, Koike K, et al. (2010) Analysis and assessment of earthquake-induced secondary mountain disaster chains based on multi-platform remote sensing. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2010 IEEE International., 1214–1217. DOI: 10.1109/IGARSS.2010.5648963CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Trunheim B, Tezcan MY (2010) Complex governance to cope with global environmental risk: An assessment of the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change. Science and Engineering Ethics 16 (3): 517–533. DOI: 10.1007/s11948-009-9170-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. UNISDR (2009) UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. Available online at: http://www.unisdr.org/ files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf (Accessed on 12 December 2014)Google Scholar
  28. Varnes DJ (1984) Landslides hazard zonation: A review of principles and practice, Paris, France: UNESCO.Google Scholar
  29. Wang F, Cheng Q, Highland L, et al. (2009) Preliminary investigation of some large landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan Province, China. Landslide 6 (1): 47–54. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-009-0141-zCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Xu C, Dai FC, Yao X, et al. (2010) GIS based certainty factor analysis of landslide triggering factors in Wenchuan earthquake. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering 29 (z1): 2972–2981. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  31. Xu L, Meng X, Xu X (2014) Natural hazard chain research in China: A review. Natural Hazards 70 (2): 1631–1659. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0881-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Xu M, Wang Z, Qi L, et al. (2012) Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Journal of Mountain Science 30 (4): 502–512. (In Chinese)Google Scholar
  33. Yin Y, Wang F, Sun P (2009) Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China. Landslide 6: 139–151. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-009-0148-5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Zhao Z, Li T, Yu S, et al. (2008) Research on earthquake disaster chain models and hazard assessment, The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China. Available online at: http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/ wcee/article/14_10-0003.PDF (Accessed on 20 December 2014)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Disaster Reduction Center of ChinaMinistry of Civil AffairsBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations