Journal of Mountain Science

, Volume 12, Issue 5, pp 1169–1180 | Cite as

Risk assessment of disaster chain: Experience from Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides in China

  • Hong-jian ZhouEmail author
  • Xi Wang
  • Yi Yuan


This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark’s permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazard-formative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.


Disaster chain Risk assessment Wenchuan Earthquake Landslide 


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Copyright information

© Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.National Disaster Reduction Center of ChinaMinistry of Civil AffairsBeijingChina

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