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Journal of Mountain Science

, Volume 11, Issue 5, pp 1286–1297 | Cite as

A modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) for debris flow susceptibility assessment: A case study for the Wenchuan earthquake meizoseismal areas

  • Jun Wang
  • Yan Yu
  • Shun Yang
  • Gui-hong Lu
  • Guo-qiang OuEmail author
Article

Abstract

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method (FW), certainty coefficient method (CF) and geomorphic information entropy method (GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, were used to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.

Keywords

Wenchuan earthquake Disaster-prone environment Debris flow Susceptibility assessment Modified certainty coefficient method (M-CF) 

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Copyright information

© Science Press, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jun Wang
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Yan Yu
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Shun Yang
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Gui-hong Lu
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Guo-qiang Ou
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Mountain hazards and Earth Surface ProcessChinese Academy of SciencesChengduChina
  2. 2.Institute of Mountain hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengduChina
  3. 3.University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

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