Politische Vierteljahresschrift

, Volume 46, Issue 1, pp 14–38 | Cite as

Parteipolitikverflechtung. Über den Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen von 1976 bis 2000

  • Simone Burkhart
Abhandlungen

Zusammenfassung

Untersuchungen über den Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlentscheidungen betrachteten in der Vergangenheit im Vertrauen auf die Existenz eines autonomen „Wahlzyklus“ den Zeitpunkt einer Landtagswahl als erklärende Variable für das Abschneiden der Regierungsparteien im Bund bei Landtagswahlen. Der Artikel untersucht die Erklärungskraft des Wahlzyklus für Deutschland vor und nach 1990 und findet für die Zeit nach der Wiedervereinigung wenig Evidenz für einen Einfluss von Zeitvariablen auf Landtagswahlergebnisse. Dies bedeutet jedoch nicht, dass der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlergebnisse zurückgegangen ist, wie einige aktuelle Untersuchungen behaupten. Regressionsanalysen zeigen, dass der Kausalmechanismus, der früheren Analysen teilweise implizit zugrunde lag, auch weiterhin gilt: Je stärker die Popularität der Bundesregierung seit Amtsantritt gesunken ist, mit desto höheren Verlusten müssen die Parteien der Bundesregierung bei Landtagswahlen rechnen. Der Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen hat seit der Wiedervereinigung sogar eher zu-als abgenommen.

The partisan dimension of the German joint decision trap. An empirical investigation of the relationship between federal and laender elections in Germany since 1976

Abstract

In anticipation of the existence of an “electoral cycle”, most studies on the relationship between federal politics and Laender election outcomes in Germany have relied on the scheduling of a Laender election as an independent variable. Election results of the federal government parties in Laender elections were then explained as a function of the time elapsed since the last federal election. This paper explores the explanatory power of the electoral cycle argument before and after 1990. It rejects time as a relevant explanatory variable for the study of the interdependence of federal and Laender election outcomes after the German reunification. However, this does not imply that the influence of federal politics on Laender election outcomes has vanished, as some recent studies have claimed. My regression analyses show that the causal link between federal and Laender election outcomes still holds: the higher the decline in the federal government’s popularity, the higher are the losses of federal government parties in Laender elections. The influence of federal politics on Laender election outcomes has grown, rather than declined, since reunification.

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© VS Verlag 2005

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  • Simone Burkhart

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