Table 3 State-Specific Effect of Reopening Indoor Dining With and Without a Statewide Mask Mandate on COVID-19 Cases and Deaths After 6 Weeks

From: Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with COVID-19 Burden

  COVID-19 cases COVID-19 deaths
State Observed cases (July 1) Excess cases (open after mandate) Excess cases (open before mandate) Excess deaths (open after mandate) Excess deaths (open before mandate)
States reopening dining rooms before mask mandates
  Alabama 59,067 1379 12,600 102 482
  Alaska 1954 34 309 1 5
  Arizona 131,411 3360 30,705 196 921
  Arkansas 30,297 740 6759 25 118
  California 355,497 9741 89,029 675 3174
  Colorado 38,240 1699 15,524 214 1007
  Florida 301,802 4630 42,314 368 1731
  Georgia 118,147 3226 29,489 300 1409
  Hawaii 1271 36 332 2 8
  Idaho 12,599 198 1812 10 46
  Indiana 54,698 2488 22,744 312 1465
  Iowa 36,536 1799 16,439 106 501
  Kansas 21,157 788 7204 29 135
  Kentucky 21,148 818 7476 66 311
  Louisiana 84,241 2428 22,194 351 1649
  Minnesota 43,782 2098 19,178 225 1057
  Mississippi 38,567 1125 10,281 124 582
  Missouri 31,737 928 8484 122 572
  Montana 2149 33 305 2 10
  Nebraska 21,979 1446 13,220 34 159
  Nevada 30,587 619 5654 56 262
  New Hampshire 6113 371 3392 54 253
  North Carolina 91,675 2899 26,495 162 763
  North Dakota 4569 202 1845 12 55
  Ohio 69,311 2534 23,156 362 1705
  Oklahoma 22,813 484 4421 47 219
  Oregon 13,087 384 3508 22 102
  South Carolina 62,245 938 8571 81 380
  South Dakota 7652 415 3793 12 55
  Tennessee 67,515 1635 14,941 53 251
  Texas 296,478 5366 49,047 257 1208
  Utah 31,228 783 7154 18 86
  Vermont 1318 57 520 6 29
  Virginia 73,527 4028 36,816 216 1016
  Washington 45,004 1447 13,227 133 627
  West Virginia 4557 129 1180 12 55
  Wisconsin 42,409 1720 15,722 92 432
  Wyoming 1985 58 533 3 13
Subtotal 2,278,352 63,062 576,371 4858 22,851
States reopening dining rooms after mask mandates
  Connecticut 47,636 3830 35,005 674 3170
  Delaware 13,050 1091 9973 93 438
  District of Columbia 11,026 905 8270 95 445
  Illinois 158,451 14,155 129,376 1236 5813
  Maine 3578 334 3054 17 80
  Maryland 75,576 6523 59,615 566 2664
  Massachusetts 112,347 8955 81,846 1350 6350
  Michigan 79,081 6822 62,356 1035 4869
  New Jersey 178,252 14,754 134,845 2793 13,138
  New Mexico 15,841 1243 11,357 95 448
  New York 408,709 33,434 305,579 4984 23,443
  Pennsylvania 102,361 12,134 110,900 1534 7218
  Rhode Island 17,640 1472 13,457 187 877
Subtotal 1,223,548 105,652 965,632 14,660 68,955
Total 3,501,900 168,714 1,542,003 19,518 91,806
  1. Estimates for excess cases and deaths generated using average marginal effects to compare predicted cases with reopening (before and after implementing mask mandates) compared to not reopening at 6 weeks