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Assessment of the WRF model in simulating a catastrophic flash flood

  • Research Article - Atmospheric & Space Sciences
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Abstract

The present study examines the ability of the forecast (WRF) model to reproduce a heavy rainfall flash-flood event that hit the urban area of Skopje City, on August 6, 2016. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to evaluate the model’s performance in the simulation of this catastrophic event, which caused great material damage and the loss of 23 human lives. The simulations with the triple-nested WRF-ARW runs as well as the experiment using WRF-NMM dynamic core with the initial data of FNL GDAS showed better skills in a more precise qualitative and quantitative assessment of the total 24-h accumulated precipitation, the location and the relative intensities of rainfall. Explicit treatment of convection without parameterization significantly improves forecast accuracy and reduces forecast errors. The verification results, using standard tests, showed the model’s ability to reproduce the occurred flood. The correlation coefficient is higher for runs with explicit cumulus convection and 4 km resolution with the Yonsei PBL scheme and Thomson microphysics with aerosol climatology. In addition to the influence of the thermodynamic characteristics of the atmosphere, orographic forcing on the development of a strong mesosystem is of great importance for the intensification of convective cells and the production of large amounts of precipitation.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge Ms. Nina Aleksovska from the Hydrometeorological Service of Macedonia (NMHS) for providing precipitation data and daily rainfall distribution for this case study event. We very much appreciate the efforts of the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their devoted time, valuable review, and very useful and constructive recommendations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Institute of Physics-Meteorology, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

    Vlado Spiridonov & Milosh Spasovski

  2. Physical Faculty, Institute of Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

    Mladjen Ćurić

  3. Vienna, Austria

    Marija Grčić

  4. Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Skopje, North Macedonia

    Boro Jakimovski

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  1. Vlado Spiridonov
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  2. Mladjen Ćurić
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Correspondence to Vlado Spiridonov.

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Edited by Prof. Theodore Karacostas (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).

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Spiridonov, V., Ćurić, M., Grčić, M. et al. Assessment of the WRF model in simulating a catastrophic flash flood. Acta Geophys. 71, 1347–1359 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01032-5

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