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Value addition in coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 over phase 5: global perspectives of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture fields

Abstract

This study establishes the improvements in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations as compared to its previous version, CMIP5. First, the historical simulations are compared with the reanalysis products from the 5th generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). Quality improvement in CMIP6 is assured through its correspondence with ERA5 in terms of mean, standard deviation and mean bias. Global fields of three hydrometeorological variables, i.e. temperature, precipitation and soil moisture, are considered from multiple General Circulation Models. Among the three variables, maximum improvement is noticed in case of soil moisture followed by precipitation, especially in the tropical belt. In case of temperature, the mean bias has reduced by ± 3 °C across the parts of North America, Africa, and South Asia. Better reliance on the CMIP6 motivates for a trend analysis to peek into the future. The results indicate a significant increasing trend for precipitation in the temperate, polar and sub-polar regions, whereas a significant increase in temperature is noticed almost all across the world with highest slope in the polar and sub-polar regions. Furthermore, soil moisture shows a significant trend that can be grouped continent-wise, e.g. Africa, Central and South Asia exhibit an increasing trend, whereas North and Central America and Northern parts of South America exhibit an overall decreasing trend. Apart from underlining the better reliance on CMIP6, the findings of this study will also be useful across different parts of the world for many climate related studies using CMIP6.

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Availability of data and materials

The data that support the findings of this study are available from; https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/, https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/, https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/ and https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/ reanalysis-datasets/era5. These datasets are freely available. It was accessed by the authors in April 2021.

Code availability

The codes required for the analysis are written in MATLAB R2018a (version 9.4). These codes can be made available on request.

References

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India through a sponsored project. The data that support the findings of this study are available from; https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/, https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/ and https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5. These datasets are freely available. It was accessed by the authors in March 2022.

Funding

This work is supported by the Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India through a sponsored project.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

RD: Methodology, Investigation, Writing—original draft. RM: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Writing—review & editing, Supervision, Funding acquisition.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rajib Maity.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Additional information

Edited by Dr. Achilleas G. Samaras (ASSOCIATE EDITOR) / Dr. Michael Nones (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).

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Dutta, R., Maity, R. Value addition in coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 over phase 5: global perspectives of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture fields. Acta Geophys. 70, 1401–1415 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00793-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00793-9

Keywords

  • CMIP6
  • CMIP5
  • ERA5
  • Historical simulations
  • Future projections
  • Trend analysis