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Earthquake prediction assessment using VLF radio signal sounding and space-based ULF emission observation

Abstract

The present paper aims at earthquake prediction assessment in Iran using VLF radio signal sounding and space-based ULF emission observation. VLF subionospheric data using the Denizkoy transmitter in Turkey at 26.7 kHz and a receiving station in Tehran are incorporated. Three earthquake events during 2019 located at different distances to the signal propagation path are used in this study. The short-term variations in the VLF signal for the 5 days averaged amplitude, as well as the deviation of the VLF signal against the 30 days averaged signal to monitor the alternation in the trend, are employed in this study to perform earthquake prediction assessment using VLF radio signal sounding. Several characteristic parameters of the VLF signal such fall-time, minimum 1 and minimum 2 throughout the day are used. A threshold over the standard deviation of the signal is used to determine the signal anomaly. The signal anomalies associated with three selected events and the correlation of prediction with the distance are discussed. A decision-making procedure for the detection of EQ-related anomalies based on the assessment of the proposed approach is introduced. The ULF emissions recorded by the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) are provided and associated with the two analyzed earthquakes using the VLF data due to lack of time coverage for the third case. The space-based detected ULF signals are presented and discussed. The proximity of the detected ULF emission with respect to the earthquake epicenter is discussed.

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Availability of data and materials

The data used in this paper are available upon request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) for supporting this work. The authors would like to thank Research Center for Earthquake prediction (RCEP) at the Institute of Geophysics for providing the data. We would like to thank Dr. Biagi for providing the VLF receiver to the Institute of Geophysics.

Funding

This work has been supported by the Iran National Science Foundation under contract 99001889. The authors would like to thank Research Center for Earthquake Prediction (RCEP) for providing the VLF data. 

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Authors

Contributions

AM came up with the idea, methodology and wrote the paper. MS did all the data analysis. MR helped with revising the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alireza Mahmoudian.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Edited by Dr. Rodolfo Console (ASSOCIATE EDITOR) / Prof. Savka Dineva (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).

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Mahmoudian, A., Safari, M. & Rezapour, M. Earthquake prediction assessment using VLF radio signal sounding and space-based ULF emission observation. Acta Geophys. 70, 1269–1284 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00785-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00785-9

Keywords

  • Earthquake prediction
  • VLF
  • Radio sounding
  • ULF emission