Probability-consistent earthquakes and probability-consistent conservative earthquakes

Abstract

It is pointed out in this paper that the concept of scenario earthquake, expectant earthquake or proposed earthquake suggested by Kameda Nojima (1988) is not probability-consistent due to unfit understanding for the aseismic design standard of probabilistic method. The corresponding concept proposed by Qi-Feng LUO meets the meaning of probability-consistent, but it is still in a meaning of average so the result is not good enough. On the basis of above analysis, a concept of probability-consistent conservative earthquakes is suggested. And a new method selecting aseismic objective earthquake with physical meaning is proposed on the basis of probabilistic method. After seismic hazard is analysed by certain control parameters, such as peak acceleration, we can determine the aseismic standard according to certain probabilistic level. Based on the attenuation law and the potential sources, we can find out some earthquakes or their combinations of magnitudes and distances. Such earthquakes or combinations are probability-consistent for this control parameter. Based on above parameter, we suggest considering the destructive effects of other parameters (such as response spectrum), and selecting conservative earthquakes to replace the average earthquake and meet the requirements of aseismic design better.