Abstract
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. ① This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; ② The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
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Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104065) and Social Public Welfare Special Foundation of the National Research Institutes (2005DIB3J119).
Contribution No.07FE3006, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.
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Xü, Gy., Gao, Mt. Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Acta Seimol. Sin. 20, 302–311 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-007-0302-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-007-0302-x
Key words
- potential seismic source
- fault rupture attitude
- potential rupture surface
- probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis
- seismic zoning