Abstract
The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.
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The paper is sponsored by the Key Project (95-04-07-04-01) during Ninth “Five-Year” Plan from China Seismological Bureau.
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Wang, XQ., Fu, ZX., Zhang, LR. et al. Spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain for middle and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application. Acta Seimol. Sin. 13, 50–60 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-000-0081-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-000-0081-0