Abstract
We have analyzed the correlation of the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China from 1990–1997 by the statistical simulation analysis method. The statistical simulation analysis method is effective to deal with space-time heterogeneity of earthquakes and risk regions, the values of simulating random prediction probability have been got after 105 count, the objective results have been got by comparing average probability between the simulating prediction and the practical prediction. The results show: (1) average probability of the practical prediction is 0.037 19 using the method of pure random simulating risk regions; (2) average probability of the practical prediction is higher than that of the simulation prediction by 0.021 83 using the method of simulating risk regions with the different probability based on the earthquake activity; (3) average probability of the practical prediction is much higher than that of the simulating prediction by 0.209 62 in West Xinjiang region using the method of dividing the Chinese Continent into the three regions: West Xinjiang region, Southwest region of China and the other region.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Kagan Y Y. 1996. VAN earthquake predictions — An attempt at statistical evaluation [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23(11): 1 315–1 318.
Research Group of Probabilities and Statistics, Center of Calculation, Chinese Academy of Science. 1979. Probability Statistics Count [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 400–440 (in Chinese).
Stark B. 1997. Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis [J]. Geophys J Intl, 131: 495–499.
Wyss M, Allmann A. 1996. Probability of chance correlations of earthquakes with predictions in areas of heterogeneous seismicity rate: the VAN case [J]. Geophys Res Lett, 23(11): 1 307–1 310.
ZHENG Zhao-bi. 1999. The uncertainty of correlation evaluation between precursory anomalies and earthquakes — Think from discussion about VAN method [J]. Recent Development in World Seismology, 242(2): 13–18 (in Chinese).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Foundation item: Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (95-07-413).
About this article
Cite this article
Zheng, Zb., Liu, J., Li, Gf. et al. Statistical simulation analysis of the correlation between the annual estimated key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China. Acta Seimol. Sin. 13, 575–584 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-000-0057-0
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11589-000-0057-0