Skip to main content

Not by Bread Alone: Estimating Potato Demand in India in 2030

Potato Research volume 62, pages 281–304 (2019)Cite this article

Abstract

While much of the literature on future food consumption in India in the decades ahead focuses on cereals, this paper presents estimates of potato demand to the year 2030 according to three different scenarios. Estimated increases in total food demand for potato range from 20 to 30 million metric tonnes and from 5.5 to 15 kg capita−1 year−1, with modest, if any, increases in foreign trade. These estimates highlight the potato’s growing importance in Indian diets as food consumption patterns continue to evolve while maintaining their traditional roots. They also call for a series of public and private initiatives to facilitate the realization of the potato’s potential future contribution to food consumption and nutrition in India. These include renewed support for research and development as relates to improved technologies for the potato sector both on and off the farm. It also involves opportunities for industry to combine market-driven innovations to achieve commercial success with benefits for growers, consumers and the environment as well.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Notes

  1. Whereas per capita availability at the national level is a rough and ready approximation of per capita consumption, the figures for the state level mentioned here must be considered with greater caution because they are annualized totals based on monthly estimates to allow for comparison with national figures and due to the absence of statistics for trade between states within national borders.

  2. See Scott et al. (2019) for information about how specific technology assumptions are modelled for each scenario and lead to the food supply estimates that complement the food demand figures presented here.

  3. The final values of the potato income elasticities for the three scenarios, together with those for wheat and rice are illustrated in Appendix Table 11

  4. See Robinson et al. (2015) for more information about how DSSAT is linked with IMPACT.

References

  • Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) (2007) Canadian potato situation and trends 2006–07. Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J (2012) World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. The 2012 revision. ESA Working Paper No 12,03. Agricultural Development Economics Division. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Anand G (2017) One man’s stand against junk food as diabetes spreads across India. New York Times Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/health/india-diabetes-junk-food.html

  • Anonymous (1995) Potatoes in the 1990s: situation and prospects of the world potato economy. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in collaboration with the International Potato Center (CIP), Rome

  • Anonymous (2017) Agricultural statistics at a glance 2016. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Delhi

  • Bentsen M, Bethke I, Debernard JB, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Seland Ø, Drange H, Roelandt C, Seierstad IA, Hoose C, Kristjánsson JE (2013) The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M—part 1: description and basic evaluation of the physical climate. Geosci Model Dev 6:687–720

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carbon Trust-BSR (2017) The CDP supply chain report 2016–2017. The Carbon Trust, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Chitchumroonchokchai C, Diretto G, Parisi B, Giuliano G, Failla ML (2017) Potential of golden potatoes to improve vitamin A and vitamin E status in developing countries. PLoS One 12(11):e0187102

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • CIP (International Potato Center) (2009) World potato atlas: India. International Potato Center (CIP), Lima Available at: https://research.cip.cgiar.org/confluence/display/wpa/India

  • CPRI (Central Potato Research Institute) (1997) Vision—2020. CPRI, Shimla

  • CPRI (Central Potato Research Institute) (2011) Vision—2030. CPRI, Shimla

  • CPRI (Central Potato Research Institute) (2015) Vision—2050. CPRI, Shimla

  • Curtis K, McCluskey J, Wall T (2007) Consumer preferences and western style convenience foods. China Econ Rev 18:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dahiya PS, Sharma HC (1994) Potato marketing in India: status, issues and outlook. Social Science Department Working Paper No.1994–2. International Potato Center (CIP), Lima

  • Devaux A, Velasco C, Thiele G, López G, Bernet T, Reinoso I, Ordinola M (2016) Collective action for market-chain innovation in the Andes. In: Devaux A, Torero M, Donavan J, Horton D (eds) Innovation for inclusive value chain development: successes and challenges. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Dua VK, Singh BP, Kumar S, Lal SS (2015) Impact of climate change on potato productivity in Uttar Pradesh and adaption strategies. Potato J 42(2):95–110

    Google Scholar 

  • Dufresne JL, Foujols MA, Denvil S, Caubel A, Marti O, Aumont O, Balkanski Y, Bekki S, Bellenger H, Benshila R, Bony S, Bopp L, Braconnot P, Brockmann P, Cadule P, Cheruy F, Codron F, Cozic A, Cugnet D, De Noblet D, Duvel JP, Ethe C, Fairhead L, Fichefet T, Flavoni S, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix JY, Guez L, Guilyardi E, Hauglustaine D, Hourdin F, Idelkadi A, Ghattas J, Joussaume S, Kageyama M, Krinner G, Labetoulle S, Lahellec A, Lefebvre MP, Lefevre F, Levy C, Li ZX, Lloyd J, Lott F, Madec G, Mancip M, Marchand M, Masson S, Meurdesoif Y, Mignot J, Musat I, Parouty S, Polcher J, Rio C, Schulz M, Swingedouw D, Szopa S, Talandier C, Terray P, Viovy N, Vuichard N (2013) Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dynam 40(9):2123–2165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunne JP, John JG, Adcroft AJ, Griffies SM, Hallberg RW, Shevliakova E, Stouffer RJ, Cooke W, Dunne KA, Harrison MJ, Krasting JP, Malyshev SL, PCD M, Phillipps PJ, Sentman LT, Samuels BL, Spelman MJ, Winton M, Wittenberg AT, Zadeh N (2012) GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J Climate 25(19):6646–6665

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) (2016) The state of food and agriculture 2016. Climate change, agriculture and food security. FAO, Rome

  • FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) (2017) FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheet and production statistics. FAO, Rome. Available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/CC and http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC. Accessed March 2017

  • Fuglie KO, Khatana VS, Ilangantileke S, Scott G, Singh J, Sumar D (2000) Economics of potato storage in Northern India. Quarterly J Int Agric 39(2):131–148

    Google Scholar 

  • Guenthner J (2001) The international potato industry. Woodhead Publishing Limited, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Guenthner J (2010) Past, present and future world potato markets: an overview. Potato J 37(1–2):1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Haase N, Haverkort A (eds) (2006) Potato developments in a changing Europe. Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Horton D (1988) Underground crops: Long-term trends in production of roots and tubers. Winrock International, Morrilton

    Google Scholar 

  • IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) (2013) SSP Database. Available at https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about. Accessed 2014

  • IndiaTimes (2017) UN projects India to become the world’s most populated country by 2024. IndiaTimes. Available at: https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/un-projects-india-to-become-world-s-most-populated-country-by-2024-324350.html

  • Jacobs A, Richtel M (2016) How big business got Brazil hooked on junk food. New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/16/health/brazil-obesity-nestle.html?_r=0

  • Jaggard K, Qi A, Ober ES (2010) Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050. Phil Trans R Soc B 365:2835–2851

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18(3):235–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kearney J (2010) Food consumption trends and drivers. Phil Trans R Soc B 365:2793–2807

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P (2017) Food and nutrition security in India: the way forward. Agric Econ Res Rev 30(1):1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Joshi PK (2016a) Food consumption patterns and nutritional security among rural households: impact of cross-cutting rural employment policies. In: Brouwer F, Joshi PK (eds) International trade and food security: the future of Indian agriculture. Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau International (CABI), Wallingford, pp 19–28

  • Kumar P, Joshi PK (2016b) Food supply and demand projections to 2030: India. In: Brouwer F, Joshi PK (eds) International trade and food security: the future of Indian agriculture. Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau International (CABI), Wallingford, pp 29–63

  • Kumar SN, Aggarwal PK, Rani S, Jain S, Saxena R, Chauhan N (2011) Impact of climate change on Western Ghats, coastal and northeastern regions of India. Curr Sci 101:332–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar SN, Govindakrishnan PM, Swarooparani PM, Nitin C, Surabhi J, Aggarwal PK (2015) Assessment of impact of climate change on potato and potential adaptation gains in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. Int J of Plant Prod 9(1):1151–1169

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau M (2008) Papa pre-frita congeladas, lavadas, seleccionadas y empacadas: La experiencia de autoservicios WONG. PowerPoint presentation at the First National Potato Congress. Huancayo. Available at www.minag.gob.pe, scrolling to “Especiales”, category “Congreso de la Papa” and from there to numbers 1–4

  • Msangi S, Rosegrant M (2011) Feeding the future’s changing diets. Implications for agricultural markets, nutrition, and policy. 2020 Conference paper 3. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC

  • Nave R, Scott G (1992) Village-level potato processing in developing countries: a case study of the SOTEC Project in India. In: Scott G, Wiersema S, Ferguson PI (eds) Product development for root and tuber crops Vol. I-Asia (Proceedings of the international workshop, Baybay, Philippines, 22 April-1 May 1991). VISCA(Visayas State Agricultural College), International Potato Center (CIP), Lima, pp 331–353

    Google Scholar 

  • NCCD (2015) All India cold-chain infrastructure capacity (assessment of status & gap). NCCD, Delhi

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson GC, Rosegrant MW, Palazzo A, Gray I, Ingersoll C, Robertson R, Tokgoz S, Zhu T, Sulser TB, Ringler C, Msangi S, You L (2010) Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson G, Bogard J, Lividini K, Arsenault J, Riley M, Sulser TB, Wiebe KD, Rosegrant MW (2018) Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century. Nat Sustain 1(12):773–781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Neil BC, Kriegler K, Riahi K, Ebi KL, Hallegatte S, Carter TR, Mathur R, Van Vuuren DP (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim Chng 122(3):387–400

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) (2017) Developing renewable energy in emerging Asia. In: Economic outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017. OECD, Paris, pp 139–163

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)/FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) (2016) OECD-FAO Agricultural outlook 2016–2025. OECD, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Pandey SK, Sarkar D, Singh SV (2006) Potato processing in India: today and tomorrow. Potato J 33(1–2):11–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Pandey SK, Marwaha RS, Kumar D, Singh SV (2009) Indian potato processing story: industrial limitations, challenges ahead and vision for the future. Potato J 36(1–2):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Petsakos A, Hareau G, Kleinwechter U, Wiebe K, Sulser TB (2018) Comparing modeling approaches for assessing priorities in international agricultural research. Res Eval 27(2):145–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pingali P (2006) Westernization of Asian diets and the transformation of food systems: Implications for research and policy. Food Policy 32:281–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Priestly H (2006) How to think like consumers and win. In: Haase N, Haverkort A (eds) Potato developments in a changing Europe. Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, pp 189–198

    Google Scholar 

  • Radhakrishna R (2006) Food consumption and nutritional status in India: emerging trends and perspectives. WP 2006–008. Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahman A, Pingali P, Mittra B (2019) Food security and nutrition in rural India: understanding state level heterogeneity. World Food Policy 4(2)/5(1) forthcoming

  • Rana RK (2011) The Indian potato processing industry. Global comparisons and business prospects. Outlook Agr 40(3):237–243

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rana RK, Anwer MD (2018) Potato production scenario and analysis of its total factor productivity in India. Indian J of Agric Sci 88(9):1354–1361

  • Reardon T, Minten B (2011) Surprised by supermarkets: diffusion of modern food retail in India. J Agribus Dev Econ 1(2):134–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reardon T, Chen K, Minten B, Adriano L (2012) The quiet revolution in staple food value chains: enter the dragon, the elephant, and the tiger. Asian Development Bank and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Manila

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson S, Mason-D’Croz D, Islam S, Sulser TB, Robertson R, Zhu T, Gueneau A, Pitois G, Rosegrant M (2015) The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Model description for version 3, discussion paper 01483. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC

  • Rosegrant MW, Development Team IMPACT (2012) International Model for Policy Analysis of agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): model description. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosen R, Guenther E (2015) The economics of mitigating climate change: what can we know? Tech Forecasting Soc Chng 91:93–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sankhe S, Vittal I, Dobbs R, Mohan A, Gulati A, Ablett J, Gupta S, Kim A, Paul S, Sanhvi A, Sethy G (2010) India’s urban awakening: building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth. McKinsey Global Institute. McKinsey and Company, Mumbai

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott G (2002) Maps, models, and muddles: world trends and patterns in potato revisited. Potato Res 45:45–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott G (2011) Tendencias cruzadas: el consumo y utilización de la papa en América Latina entre 1961 y 2007 y sus implicancias para la industria. Rev Latam Papa 16:1–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Kleinwechter U (2017) Future scenarios for potato demand, supply and trade in South America to 2030. Potato Res 60(1):23–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Suarez V (2011) Growth rates for potato in India 1961–2009 and their implications for industry. Potato J 38(2):100–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Suarez V (2012a) The rise of Asia as the centre of global potato production and some implications for industry. Potato J 39(1):1–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Suarez V (2012b) From Mao to McDonald’s: emerging markets for potatoes and potato products in China 1961–2007. Am J Potato Res 89(3):216–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Wong D, Alvarez M (1993) Improving village-level processing in developing countries: the case of potatoes. Ecology of Food and Nutrition 30:145–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Rosegrant M, Ringler C (2000) Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020. Food Policy 25(5):561–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott G, Petsakos A, Juarez H (2019) Climate change, food security, and future scenarios for potato production in India to 2030. Food Sec, forthcoming https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00889-z

  • Scrieciu S, Rezai A, Mechler R (2013) On the economic foundations of green growth discourses: the case of climate change mitigation and macroeconomic dynamics in economic modelling. Wiley Interdisciplinary Review: Energy & Envir 2(3):251–268

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma A, Bhardwaj P (2015) Hypermarkets: growth and challenges perspective in. India Asian Pacific J of Marketing and Mgt Rev 4(7):18–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Springmann M, Mason-D’Croz D, Robinson S, Wiebe K, Godfray CJ, Rayner M, Scarborough P (2017) Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities. Nat Clim Chang 7:69–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tewari VK (2017) Agricultural mechanisation in the state of West Bengal, India. In: Sattar MA, Biggs ST, Justice SE (eds) Rural mechanisation. A driver in agricultural change and rural development. Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), Dhaka, pp 191–202

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmer CP (2014) The dynamics of agricultural development and food security in Southeast Asia: historical continuity and rapid change. In: Coxhead I (ed) Handbook of Southeast Asian Economics. Routledge, New York, pp 89–113

    Google Scholar 

  • Timmer CP (2017) Food security, structural transformation, markets and government policy. Asia Pac Policy Stud 4(1):4–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmer CP, Block S, Dawe D (2010) Long-run dynamics of rice consumption, 1960–2050. In: Pandey S, Byerlee D, Dawe D, Doberman A, Mohanty S, Rozelle S, Hardy B (eds) Rice in the global economy. Strategic research and policy issues for food security. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Manila, pp 139–174

    Google Scholar 

  • Trading Economics (2017) India GDP per capita PPP, 1990–2017. Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-per-capita-ppp

  • United Nations (2015) World population prospects. The 2015 revision. United Nations, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard A, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109(1):5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E, O’Neill BC, Ebi KL, Riahi K, Carter TR, Edmonds J, Hallegatte S, Kram T, Mathur R, Winkler H (2014) A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture. Clim Chang 122(3):373–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vengatesh V, Sangeetha V, Singh P (2016) Relationship between food production and consumption diversity in India: empirical evidences from cross-sectional analysis. Agric Econ Res Rev 29:139–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker T, Schmiediche P, Hijmans R (1999) World patterns and trends in the potato crop: an economic and geographic survey. Potato Res 42:241–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe S, Hajima T, Sudo K, Nagashima T, Takemura T, Okajima H, Nozawa T, Kawase T, Abe M, Yokohata T, Ise T, Sato H, Kato E, Takata K, Emori S, Kawamiya M (2011) MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci Model Dev 4:845–872

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watson J (ed) (2006) Golden arches east. McDonald’s in East Asia (2nd ed). Stanford University Press, Stanford

    Google Scholar 

  • Wiebe K, Lotze-Campen H, Sands R, Tabeau A, Van der Mensbrugghe D, Biewald A, Bodirsky B, Islam S, Kavallari A, Mason-D’Croz D, Müller C, Robertson R, Robinson S, Van Meijl H, Willenbockel D (2015) Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Envir Res Letters 10:085010

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wilkinson J, Rocha R (2009) Agro-industry trends, patterns and development impacts. In: da Silva C, Baker D, Shepherd A, Jenane C, Miranda-da-Cruz S (eds) Agro-industries for development. CAB International and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations), Wallingford, pp 46–91

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Woolfe J (1987) The potato in the human diet. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was undertaken as part of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project (GFSF) of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM).

Funding

Funding support was provided by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM). The opinions expressed here belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of PIM or the CGIAR.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School, Lima, Peru

    Gregory J. Scott

  2. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú, Lima, Peru

    Gregory J. Scott

  3. Social and Nutrition Sciences Division, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru

    Athanasios Petsakos & Victor Suarez

Authors
  1. Gregory J. Scott
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Athanasios Petsakos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Victor Suarez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gregory J. Scott.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 11 Income elasticities of demand used for this study
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Scott, G.J., Petsakos, A. & Suarez, V. Not by Bread Alone: Estimating Potato Demand in India in 2030. Potato Res. 62, 281–304 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-019-9411-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-019-9411-x

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Cold storage
  • Consumption
  • Diets
  • IMPACT
  • Industry
  • Markets
  • Policy
  • Processing
  • Technology
  • Trade