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Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt

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Abstract

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that harms both human health and livestock production. It is believed that RVF in Egypt has been repeatedly introduced by the importation of infected animals from Sudan. In this paper, we propose a three-patch model for the process by which animals enter Egypt from Sudan, are moved up the Nile, and then consumed at population centers. The basic reproduction number for each patch is introduced and then the threshold dynamics of the model are established. We simulate an interesting scenario showing a possible explanation of the observed phenomenon of the geographic spread of RVF in Egypt.

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Acknowledgement

We thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions which led to an improvement of our original manuscript. Research was supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH) grant R01GM093345.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA, 94143, USA

    Daozhou Gao

  2. Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, 33124, USA

    Chris Cosner, Robert Stephen Cantrell & Shigui Ruan

  3. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, 33136, USA

    John C. Beier

Authors
  1. Daozhou Gao
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  2. Chris Cosner
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  3. Robert Stephen Cantrell
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  4. John C. Beier
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  5. Shigui Ruan
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Correspondence to Shigui Ruan.

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Gao, D., Cosner, C., Cantrell, R.S. et al. Modeling the Spatial Spread of Rift Valley Fever in Egypt. Bull Math Biol 75, 523–542 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-013-9818-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-013-9818-5

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