Estimating the Size of the MSM Population in Metro Vancouver, Canada, Using Multiple Methods and Diverse Data Sources
- 266 Downloads
Men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV globally, regionally in Canada, and locally in Vancouver. Lack of reliable population size estimates of MSM impedes effective implementation of health care services and limits our understanding of the HIV epidemic. We estimated the population size of MSM residing in Metro Vancouver drawing on four data sources: the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), a cross-sectional bio-behavioural MSM survey, HIV testing services data from sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics serving MSM, and online social networking site Facebook. Estimates were calculated using (1) direct estimates from the CCHS, (2) “Wisdom of the Crowds” (WOTC), and (3) the multiplier method using data from a bio-behavioural MSM survey, clinic-based HIV testing, and online social media network site Facebook. Data sources requiring greater public disclosure of sexual orientation resulted in our mid-range population estimates (Facebook 23,760, CCHS 30,605). The WOTC method produced the lowest estimate, 10,000. The multiplier method using STI clinic HIV testing data produced the largest estimate, 41,777. The median of all estimates was 27,183, representing 2.9% of the Metro Vancouver census male adult population, with an interquartile range of 1.1–4.5%. Using multiple data sources, our estimates of the MSM population in Metro Vancouver are similar to population prevalence estimates based on population data from other industrialized nations. These findings will support understanding of the HIV burden among MSM and corresponding public health and health services planning for this key population.
KeywordsMSM Population size HIV Canada Respondent-driven sampling
This work was supported by the Canadian Institutes for Health Research  and the National Institute for Drug Abuse at the National Institutes for Health [R01DA031055]. We thank the research participants for sharing their important data with the Momentum Health Study. We also thank our community-based partners on the Momentum Health Study Community Advisory Board for their input in this work, including representatives from the Health Initiative for Men, YouthCO HIV & Hep C Society of BC, and Positive Living Society of BC. DMM is supported by a Scholar Award from the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research.
- 3.BC Centre for Disease Control. HIV in British Columbia: annual surveillance report 2014. http://www.bccdc.ca/util/about/annreport/default.htm. Published November 2015. Accessed May 15, 2016.
- 4.Hughes AJ, Saxton PJ. Geographic micro-clustering of homosexual men: implications for research and social policy. Soc Policy J N Z. 2006;28:158–78.Google Scholar
- 5.Statistics Canada. Health care use among gay, lesbian and bisexual Canadians. Vol 19. Health reports. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-003-x/2008001/article/10532-eng.htm. Published 2008. Accessed 7 June 2016.
- 9.Laumann EO, Gagnon JH, Michael RT, Michaels S. The Social Organization of Sexuality. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press; 1994.Google Scholar
- 17.Raymond HF, Bereknyei S, Berglas N, Hunter J, Ojeda N, McFarland W. Estimating population size, HIV prevalence and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men: a case example of synthesising multiple empirical data sources and methods in San Francisco. Sex Transm Infect. 2013;89(5):383–7.CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
- 23.Statistics Canada. Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)—annual component: user guide 2012 and 2011–12 microdata files. Statistics Canada: Ottawa, ON; 2013.Google Scholar
- 25.Respondent-Driven Sampling Analysis Tool (RDSAT) Version 7.1. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University; 2012.Google Scholar
- 26.Statistics Canada. Census dictionary. Ottawa, Canada http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/ref/dict/geo049a-eng.cfm. Published 2011. Accessed 15 May 2016.
- 27.Sarafin C, Simard M, Thomas S. A review of the weighting strategy for the Canadian Community Health Survey. In: St John’s; 2007. Presented as part of the Statistical Society of Canada conference; 2007; St. John’s, Newfoundland.Google Scholar
- 31.UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on HIV/AIDS/STI Surveillance. Guidelines on estimating the size of populations most at risk to HIV. 2010:1–51.Google Scholar
- 32.Statistics Canada. Visual census. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/vc-rv/index.cfm?Lang=ENG&VIEW=D&CFORMAT=jpg&GEOCODE=933&TOPIC_ID=2. Published October 2012. Accessed 15 May 2016.
- 41.Rainbow Health Ontario. LGBT research with secondary data. http://www.rainbowhealthontario.ca/wp-content/uploads/woocommerce_uploads/2012/10/LGBTQRESEARCHWITHSECONDARYDATA_E.pdf. Published August 2012. Accessed 10 Aug 2016.
- 43.Statistics Canada. Canadian Community Health Survey—annual component (CCHS). http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3226#a2. Published June 24 2016. Accessed 10 July 2016.