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Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method

Journal of Urban Health volume 94, pages 339–349 (2017)Cite this article

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Nghe An province, Viet Nam, using a novel method of population size estimation, and to assess the feasibility of the method in implementation. An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method, and using social app technology and internet-based surveys was undertaken among MSM in two regions of Viet Nam in 2015. Enumeration of active users of popular social apps for MSM in Viet Nam was conducted over 4 weeks. Subsequently, an independent online survey was done using respondent driven sampling. We also conducted interviews with key informants in Nghe An and HCMC on their experience and perceptions of this method and other methods of size estimation. The population of MSM in Nghe An province was estimated to be 1765 [90% CI 1251–3150]. The population of MSM in HCMC was estimated to be 37,238 [90% CI 24,146–81,422]. These estimates correspond to 0.17% of the adult male population in Nghe An province [90% CI 0.12–0.30], and 1.35% of the adult male population in HCMC [90% CI 0.87–2.95]. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.35% [90% CI 0.87%–2.95%] of the adult male population in HCMC) fall within current standard practice of estimating 1–3% of adult male population in big cities. Our size estimates of the MSM population (0.17% [90% CI 0.12–0.30] of the adult male population in Nghe An province) are lower than the current standard practice of estimating 0.5–1.5% of adult male population in rural provinces. These estimates can provide valuable information for sub-national level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe that our results help to improve application of this population size estimation method in other regions of Viet Nam.

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks are extended to Abu S. Abdul-Quader (Senior Strategic Information Adviser, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) for his valuable guidance and advice, from reviewing the methodology, to insights provided during the implementation, to reviewing the results. We also appreciate the professional work of the interviewers, Nguyen Thien Nga and Huynh Lan Phuong, and the community organizations, iSEE and ICS, the provincial AIDS Committee in Nghe An province and Ho Chi Minh City, and all the respondents who spent their time to inform and improve the estimations and methods. This study was made possible with financial support from UNAIDS (award 59825, 61545). The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of their affiliated organizations.

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Affiliations

  1. UNAIDS, Hanoi, Viet Nam

    Ali Safarnejad & Nguyen Thien Nga

  2. Vietnam Authority of HIV/AIDS Control (VAAC), Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Viet Nam

    Vo Hai Son

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  1. Ali Safarnejad
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  2. Nguyen Thien Nga
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  3. Vo Hai Son
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Correspondence to Ali Safarnejad.

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Safarnejad, A., Nga, N.T. & Son, V.H. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method. J Urban Health 94, 339–349 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-016-0123-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-016-0123-0

Keywords

  • Viet Nam
  • Size estimation
  • Most at-risk populations
  • HIV AIDS
  • HIV surveillance
  • Social network
  • RDS