Project regularity: Development and evaluation of a new project characteristic
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The ability to accurately characterize projects is essential to good project management. Therefore, a novel project characteristic is developed that reflects the value accrue within a project. This characteristic, called project regularity, is expressed in terms of the newly introduced regular/irregular-indicator RI. The widely accepted management system of earned value management (EVM) forms the basis for evaluation of the new characteristic. More concretely, the influence of project regularity on EVM forecasting accuracy is assessed, and is shown to be significant for both time and cost forecasting. Moreover, this effect appears to be stronger than that of the widely used characteristic of project seriality expressed by the serial/parallel-indicator SP. Therefore, project regularity could also be useful as an input parameter for project network generators. Furthermore, the introduction of project regularity can provide project managers with a more accurate indication of the time and cost forecasting accuracy that is to be expected for a certain project and, correspondingly, of how a project should be built up in order to obtain more reliable forecasts during project control.
KeywordsProject management earned value management time and cost forecasting empirical database Monte Carlo simulation project control system
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We acknowledge the support provided by the “Nationale Bank van België” (NBB) and by the “Bijzonder Onderzoeksfonds” (BOF) for the project with contract number BOF12GOA021. Furthermore, we would also like to thank Gilles Bonne, Eveline Hoogstoel and Gilles Vandewiele for their efforts in developing PMConverter. And last but not least, we would like to express our gratitude towards the anonymous referees who helped to improve the quality of this paper through their constructive comments and valuable suggestions.
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