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Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method ‒ prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors

  • Geng Peng
  • Ying Liu
  • Jiyuan Wang
  • Jifa Gu
Article

Abstract

Web search query data are obtained to reflect social spots and serve as novel economic indicators. When faced with high-dimensional query data, selecting keywords that have plausible predictive ability and can reduce dimensionality is critical. This paper presents a new integrative method that combines Hurst Exponent (HE) and Time Difference Correlation (TDC) analysis to select keywords with powerful predictive ability. The method is called the HE-TDC screening method and requires keywords with predictive ability to satisfy two characteristics, namely, high correlation and fluctuation memorability similar to the predicting target series. An empirical study is employed to predict the volume of tourism visitors in the Jiuzhai Valley scenic area. The study shows that keywords selected using HE-TDC method produce a model with better robustness and predictive ability.

Keywords

Tourism visitor volume prediction web-search data HE-TDC method Jiuzhai Valley time series Hurst exponent 

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Copyright information

© Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Economic and ManagementUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  2. 2.Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge ManagementChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

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