The application of the Median Voter Theory to the formulation of policies for the citizenization of peasant workers—An empirical study on 436 peasant workers in Wuhan

Abstract

The Median Voter Theory is an important theory in the neo-political economics. It can be applied to solve the collective choice paradox and analyze the policy making for the citizenization of peasant workers. Adopting the method of factor analysis, this paper makes an empirical study on peasant workers’ preference for citizenization. We find that there is a paradox of future residence preference and self-identification in peasant workers. On this basis, peasant workers are divided into 5 subgroups, and it is found that the median undecided peasant workers are the median voters. Based on the analysis of the median undecided peasant worker’s complaints and appeals, it is proposed that the country should strengthen the vocational training system, establish a social security system, expand the agricultural reform and promote educational reform to facilitate the citizenization of peasant workers.

摘要

中间选民定理是新政治经济学的重要理论, 它有效解决了集体选择的悖论, 也适用于农民工市民化进程的政策分析。 采用因子分析法对代表农民工市民化偏好的市民化意愿进行了实证分析, 发现农民工未来归属倾向和自我身份判断发生了背离, 并在此基础上, 将农民工划分为5个亚群体, 发现中间不定者具有中间选民特征。 在对中间不定者诉求分析的基础上, 提出国家应加强农民工职业培训、 构建农民工社会保障体系、 加大农业改革和促进农民工子女教育改革等措施。