An empirical study on “the US-China trade deficit produced by FDI”

Abstract

This article makes an empirical study on the magnifying effect produced by foreign direct investment (hereafter called as FDI) on the US-China trade deficit through co-integration analysis and error-correction modeling. By combining the empirical results, we give out our own opinion that the expansion of the US-China trade deficit is supposed to partly ascribe to the fact that processed industry is the main path of FDI and to Counter sales and trade diversion which are produced by exports on reproduced production by foreign enterprises in China. On the above-mentioned basis, this article concludes that in order to reduce the US-China trade deficit effectively, we are supposed to expand our domestic demand, perfect our inviting-investment policies, implement FDI in China and quicken up the “going out” of our enterprises.

摘要

利用协整分析和误差修正模型, 对外商在华直接投资对美中贸易逆差的 “引致扩大” 效应进行了实证分析, 并结合实证结果, 认为美中贸易逆差扩大应部分归因于以加工产业为主的外商直接投资方式, 以及由此 “引致” 的外资在华企业的出口返销与贸易转移, 并在此基础上提出: 扩大内需、 完善我国引资政策与实施对外直接投资, 加快我国企业 “走出去” 步伐, 是减少美国对我国贸易逆差的有效手段。