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Spatiotemporal evolution of population exposure to multi-scenario rainstorms in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

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Abstract

Population exposure is a dominant representation of rainstorm hazard risks. However, the refined precipitation data in temporal resolution and the comparison of exposure to different rainstorm events remain relatively unexplored. Hourly precipitation data from 165 meteorological stations w used to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of population exposure to different rainstorm scenarios in the prefecture-level cities for different periods and age groups. The Geographical Detector was adopted to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and contribution rates to changes in population exposure during each period. The results revealed that population exposure to persistent rainstorms and abrupt rainstorms was low in the center and high in the surrounding areas, and the high exposure value decreased significantly in the 2010s. Additionally, as the duration of rainstorm events increased, the center of the high-value area of population exposure shifted southward. The distribution of population exposure was closely related to the age structure, demonstrating strong consistency with the distribution of different age groups. Except for abrupt rainstorms, the contribution rates of the average land GDP and urbanization rate to the exposure of all rainstorm scenarios increased significantly. This implies that the main factors influencing population exposure have shifted from meteorological to socioeconomic factors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of VGE of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Yaru Zhang, Rui Yao, Zhizhou Zhu, Hengxu Jin & Shuliang Zhang

  2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Yaru Zhang, Rui Yao, Zhizhou Zhu, Hengxu Jin & Shuliang Zhang

  3. School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, Anhui, 241002, China

    Rui Yao

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  1. Yaru Zhang
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  2. Rui Yao
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  3. Zhizhou Zhu
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  4. Hengxu Jin
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  5. Shuliang Zhang
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Correspondence to Shuliang Zhang.

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Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.42071364, No.42271483; The Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province, No.KYCX22_1585

Author: Zhang Yaru (1998–), Master, specialized in urban flood simulation and flood risk assessment.

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Zhang, Y., Yao, R., Zhu, Z. et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of population exposure to multi-scenario rainstorms in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. J. Geogr. Sci. 34, 654–680 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-024-2222-2

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